【天风电新&汽车】View: No longer pessimistic; the bigger the waves, the bigger the opportunity - 0727

English summary

In A-shares, when there is extreme consensus, opportunities vanish (e.g., in June, everyone was bullish on the overseas price-increase chain). From this weekend's observations, the market's current consensus is: technology is expected to rebound; in the rebound, choose domestic names with flawless logic; other directions are attempting rebalancing, with Guangdong-Shenzhen/Shanghai preferring non-ferrous metals and Beijing preferring new energy. We update our view: Regarding chip positioning: On Friday, net values of major technology fund managers fell far less than estimated (either reducing positions or switching positions), and since July, technology stocks have fallen broadly by 30-40%, indicating chip rebalancing is underway. Regarding the overseas narrative: Whether it is A or O is not important; what matters is the explosion of tokens. If token volume explodes, it's just a matter of whether CSPs or cloud vendors make the money and continue to invest. If you are not bullish on overseas, what would domestic rely on for distillation and to support valuations? In this chaotic market, how do we view investment opportunities? First, choose the Q3 upgrade logic, typically the localization of [Rubin and substrate]. The market expectation gap is larger in substrates. Key targets: downstream [深南电路, 兴森科技], upstream [方邦股份, 华正新材, 激智科技]. …