[GF Transportation (Xu Ke Team)] 20260726: Strait Situation Temporarily Eases

English summary

Top Picks: China Merchants Energy Shipping, Haitong Development, Eastern Air Logistics, J&T Express. Key changes: 1. Express logistics: Cross-border negative factors are exhausted, exports are strong, and SHEIN's IPO catalyzes sector attention; 2. Shipping: Bab el-Mandeb Strait risks raise Red Sea detour costs, and Aframax tanker freight rates rebound sharply. Specific views: 1. Express logistics: Short-term cross-border negative factors are exhausted, fundamentals are strong. If SHEIN lists in August, it is expected to increase attention. Watch Eastern Air Logistics and Jiacheng International. J&T's Q2 Southeast Asia volume grew about 60%, Latin America grew about 130% and accelerating; domestic June peak season remained resilient. E-commerce express prices are stable, Guangdong locks prices until year-end, Yiwu has both upper and lower limits, and the price center is stable. Watch YTO Express. 2. Shipping: Tankers: Aframax TCE up 72.9% WoW to $83,800/day; Bab el-Mandeb Strait risks raise detour waiting costs, coupled with Hormuz resumption expectations; recommend COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation and China Merchants Energy Shipping. Bulk carriers: Capesize TCE up 3.1% WoW, iron ore and coal cargo volumes improve; follow Haitong Development. ...