8月零售销售：夏季强劲表现

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M

Update

September 16, 2026 01:04 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

U.S. Data Pulse | North America

Michael T Gapen

Chief US Economist

August Retail Sales: Summer

strength

Sam D Coffin

Economist

Arunima Sinha

Global Economist

Key Takeaways

Heather Berger

Economist

Headline retail sales rose 1.2% m/m, and control group sales rose 1.4%, both

much stronger than our and consensus expectations. Revisions were minimal.

Diego Anzoategui

Economist

We are tracking 3Q real consumption at 2.9% (q/q a.r.) vs 2.1% before the print

Lingdi Xu

and 3Q GDP at 2.4% vs. 2.0% before.

Economist

Real goods consumption is tracking +2.8% in 3Q and real services +3.0%. We

expect August real consumption up 0.4% m/m.

Nonstore sales rebounded strongly from the weak July, and restaurant sales were

strong for the fifth month in a row. Within control, every category rose m/m.

Consumption surprised us to the upside slightly in 1H, and with this print, the

strength extends to 3Q. The consumer has been resilient through high inflation.

Exhibit 1:

Retail & food services

ex autos

Control-group

Motor vehicle and parts

Gasoline

Building materials

Restaurants

Retail sales and its components

Jan

0.0

0.1

0.5

-0.7

-2.2

0.7

-0.3

Feb

0.9

1.0

1.7

0.5

0.7

Mar

1.7

2.0

0.9

0.6

14.2

1.3

0.0

Apr

0.7

0.9

0.6

-0.4

3.7

0.1

1.0

May

0.9

0.6

1.0

2.8

0.2

1.3

June

0.3

-0.2

0.4

2.5

-5.5

1.0

0.7

July

-0.5

-0.2

-0.4

-1.8

-0.2

-0.1

0.5

Aug Actual

1.2

1.4

0.6

3.1

-0.2

1.2

MS Forecast Consensus

0.7

0.8

0.5

0.6

0.5

1.6

-0.2

0.2

Net Revisions

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.9

-0.6

0.3

Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Morgan Stanley Research. Note: the revisions refer to the change in the prior 2 months.