催化剂预览：未来展望

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M

Idea

September 16, 2026 11:32 AM GMT

China/Hong Kong Consumer | Asia Pacific

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Lillian Lou

Equity Analyst

Catalyst Preview: What's Ahead

Dustin Wei

Equity Analyst

We expect general softness to continue, but with likely

stabilization or some sequential improvement in the combined

mid-autumn and national day holidays vs. the weak summer

trend. Demand pressure still persists for liquor, while leading

cosmetics and sportswear companies could see some upside.

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Terence Cheng

Equity Analyst

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Hildy Ling

Equity Analyst

General trends for the upcoming Mid-autumn/National Day holidays and 11.11 pre-

sales season:

Jenny Yu

Research Associate

Liquor: Demand remains generally weak, and we do not expect strong support from

holiday peak season for the sell-through trend. We still expect consumption volume

to decline for the industry, while Feitian Moutai's shipment pace should be steady,

outperforming other players.

Carlos Liu, CFA

Research Associate

Charlotte Zhou

Research Associate

Beauty: Amid a light season between 6.18 and 11.11, beauty stocks have traded lower

with the consumer sector. We expect the upcoming 11.11 to provide catalysts for

select companies, with Douyin likely starting on October 8-9 and Tmall likely

China/Hong Kong Consumer

Asia Pacific

Industry View

In-Line

starting Austin Li's livestream on October 13-14. We expect Giant Biogene to

perform well, supported by a low base, stronger self-operated channels, new

products and solid YTD new-customer acquisition. For MGP, the upcoming skincare

collection, likely to be launched online as well, could help offset negative sentiment

toward its skincare segment if initial sales are strong.

Restaurants: More normalized weather and holiday effect could help some

sequential recovery. We see promotional activities continuing for QSR and freshly

brewed beverage players.

F&B: Leading dairy/liquid milk players should show consistent positive sales

momentum. Beer/beverages are off peak season with possible slight recovery vs. 2Q

and lingering cost pressure.

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