仓储REITs｜北美地区：9月同比价格增速较劳动节定价放缓；因复苏节奏放缓，下调2026e/2027e预测0-1%

研报英文原文证据摘录

Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley

M

Idea

September 15, 2026 10:14 PM GMT

Storage REITs | North America

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Ronald Kamdem, CFA

Equity Analyst

September YoY pricing slows

from Labor Day pricing;

Reducing 26e/27e ests 0-1% on

slower recovery timing

Proprietary AlphaWise data suggest new-tenant pricing growth

of -9.2% YoY as of September 8 (vs. -0.4% in August and +4.1%

in July). The move reflects a -14.7% MoM decline vs a -4.3%

September norm, which may be due to Labor Day promotional

pricing, as the data was captured one day after Labor Day

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Key Takeaways

New-tenant pricing growth slowed to -9.2% YoY as of Sep 8 vs a restated -0.4%

in August and +4.1% in July, the weakest since Dec 2025, likely due to Labor Day

Jenny Li

Research Associate

Real Estate Investment Trusts

North America

Industry View

In-Line

Exhibit 1 : Estimated pricing growth was -

9.2% YoY as of September 8th

Monthly Rental Rate YoY Change

60.0%

50.0%

2026

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

1.0%

4.1%

0.0%

-10.0% -4.5%

-4.8%

-7.7%

-4.3%

-0.4%

-8.5%

-9.2%

-20.0%

-30.0%

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Source: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley Research; Company data, CoStar

Exhibit 2 : REIT rental growth for new tenants

ranged from -4.9% (CUBE) to -10.0% (EXR) on

September 8th

September MoM change of -14.7% was well below the pre-COVID (2015–2019)

September average of -4.3%, vs August’s +0.8% and July’s +2.8%.

Index of top 20 Markets for Each Ticker YoY

70.0%

PSA

EXR

LSI

CUBE

NSA

UHAUL

60.0%

50.0%

Storage now trades at a 13% discount to the broader REIT group on NTM FFO,

wider than 9% previously and the 2-year/5-year average discounts of 7%/3%.

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

5.2%; the 10x10 street rate of $153 stands ~+2.0% above September 2019 ($150).

Pricing weakened across operators, though CUBE held up best at -4.9% YoY.

Storage rental pricing growth for new tenants slowed to -9.2% YoY as of

0.0%

-10.0%

-20.0% Price / Square Foot YoY

-30.0%

Dec-11

Apr-12

Aug-12

Dec-12

Apr-13

Aug-13

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

…