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Idea

September 15, 2026 08:26 PM GMT

James Hardie Industries PLC | Asia Pacific

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+

Joseph Michael, CFA

Equity Analyst

Investor Day: Key Takeaways

from New York

Julianna C Sick

Equity Analyst

James Hardie Industries PLC (JHX.AX, JHX AU)

JHX’s Investor Day supports our medium-term thesis: self-help

should drive above-market growth through the cycle, with US

housing recovery upside. US shares fell 5% (S&P 500 -0.5%) as

much of the good news was pre-announced and mortgage rates

approach 7%, implying a tougher backdrop. Reiterate OW.

The Investor Day was supportive of our OW thesis, with four key takeaways:

1) FY27 guidance reaffirmed; FCF upgraded: JHX reaffirmed 2QFY27 sales and

EBITDA guidance (now ex-Europe), including FY27 sales of US$4.99-5.13bn and

adjusted EBITDA of US$1.45-1.53bn. FY27 FCF guidance was raised to US$600m+

from US$500m+. The lack of a further EBITDA upgrade may have disappointed

some investors, but the US housing backdrop has weakened as mortgage rates

approach 7%, while freight and diesel costs remain elevated. Guidance assumes no

housing recovery, reinforcing our view that delivery is increasingly driven by selfhelp rather than the cycle.

2) Medium-term targets support our earnings upside thesis: JHX introduced a NA

growth algorithm targeting 4-7ppt organic sales growth above market, with 35%+

EBITDA flow-through. The framework is driven by material conversion, growth

initiatives/commercial synergies, and net price, while housing recovery and bolt-on

M&A provide further upside. We think this supports our medium/high-case FY29e

Australia Industrials | Australia

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Sep 15, 2026)

Sh out, dil, curr (mn)

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

EV, curr (mn)

Avg daily trading value (mn)

Overweight

In-Line

A$48.00

22

A$39.36

580

US$16,373

US$20,638

A$86

Fiscal Year Ending

03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

EPS (US$)**

EPS (US$)§

Revenue, net (US$ mn)

EBITDA (US$ mn)

ModelWare net inc (US

$ mn)

P/E

P/BV

RNOA (%)

ROE (%)

EV/EBITDA

Div yld (%)

FCF yld ratio (%)

Leverage (EOP) (%)

…