Copa Holdings | Latin America August Traffic: +16.8% Y/Y; Another Strong Print w/ LFs Holding — Tracking Ahead of 3Q Expectations

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M

Update

September 10, 2026 02:03 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley México, Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V.+

Copa Holdings | Latin America

Jens Spiess, CFA

Equity Analyst

August Traffic: +16.8% Y/Y;

Another Strong Print w/ LFs

Holding — Tracking Ahead of

3Q Expectations

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+

Joao Pedro Franco dos Santos

Research Associate

Gustavo Soares

Research Associate

Copa Holdings (CPA.N, CPA US)

Latin America Transportation & Infrastructure | Panama

Copa's total traffic (RPM) increased 16.8% Y/Y in August. QTD traffic is up 17.1%

Y/Y, which compares to 3Q26 consensus of +14.8% and MSe of +16.5%.

Total capacity in August was up 16.8% Y/Y, implying a load factor of 88.3% (down

140bps M/M, but flat Y/Y). According to OAG data, scheduled capacity in September

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Sep 9, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr (mm)

52-Week Range

Overweight

In-Line

US$205.00

US$129.91

US$5,314

US$160.00-107.50

is set to grow 15.6%, implying ~16% Y/Y capacity growth for 3Q26, slightly above

consensus of +15.2%, but basically in line with MSe of +16.1%.

Exhibit 1:

Monthly traffic comparison

Copa Monthly Traffic

ASM (# mn)

RPM (# mn)

Load Factor (%)

Aug-26

3,219

2,841

88.3%

Aug-25

2,755

2,432

88.3%

Y/Y

16.8%

-3bps

Jul-26

3,317

2,974

89.7%

M/M

-2.9%

-4.5%

-140bps

Source: Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 2:

Copa traffic growth

COPA Total Traffic Y/Y Change

30.0%

23.6%

25.0%

20.0%

17.5%

15.0%

10.0%

11.2% 12.1%

9.5%

8.7%

5.0%

0.0%

-5.0%

7.3% 6.8%

11.5%

5.8% 6.5% 6.8%

2.3%

17.4%

16.2% 16.7%

17.0% 16.8%

13.3%

10.9%

15.3%

9.8% 9.3%

13.3%

7.5% 7.8%

6.4% 10.2%

5.2%

5.5% 6.3%

-5.9%

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-25

Feb-25

Mar-25

Apr-25

May-25

Jun-25

Jul-25

Aug-25

Sep-25

Oct-25

Nov-25

Dec-25

Jan-26

Feb-26

Mar-26

Apr-26

May-26

Jun-26

Jul-26

Aug-26

-10.0%

Source: Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research

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