2026年第二季度业绩电话会议：宏观疲软；科技应用是行业领导地位的关键

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M

Update

August 19, 2026 03:07 AM GMT

ZTO Express | Asia Pacific

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Qianlei Fan, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26 Results Call: Soft Macro;

Tech Application Key to Industry

Leadership

Key Takeaways

Evan Chen

Research Associate

ZTO Express (ZTO.N, ZTO UN)

Overall industry volume growth is soft due mainly to macro headwinds. ASP was

Hong Kong/China Transportation & Infrastructure | China

better than management expected in 2Q26.

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Aug 18, 2026)

52-Week Range

Sh out, dil, curr (mn)

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

EV, curr (mn)

Avg daily trading value (mn)

Management mentioned potential non-operating impacts from uncertainties

related to government grants, and provisions for warehouse and other

investments in 2H.

We see limited downside risks to the current consensus full year net profit

estimation.

Overweight

In-Line

US$30.10

30

US$23.13

US$26.15-17.74

798

Rmb124,456

Rmb111,054

US$10

Going forward, tech application will be key to differentiate from competitors –

Fiscal Year Ending

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

leaders will be able to expand ASP premium and cost advantage, per

EPS (Rmb)**

Prior EPS (Rmb)**

EBITDA (Rmb mn)

Net income (Rmb

mn)**

P/E**

ROE (%)

EV/EBITDA

Div yld (%)

FCF yld ratio (%)

11.40 14.15 16.42 18.71

13,963 16,860 19,379 21,671

9,513 11,488 13,327 15,182

management.

Market volume growth outlook softened in 2026 amid macro challenges. Volume

guide down mainly on macro concerns.

• Aug company vol growth has modestly improved vs. Jul-26.

Unit cost reduction – fuel impacts could last for longer than expected. Unit-cost ex

fuel reduced Rmb0.04 in 2Q, per management.

12.8

14.6

7.6

3.3

5.1

11.0

16.6

5.7

0.0

6.7

9.5

17.4

4.5

3.7

8.6

8.3

17.6

3.6

4.3

10.7

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Retail business: 2Q26 reverse logistics growth ~80% YoY, retail/total mix will

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continue to improve in 2Q26, per management. Management sees room for retail

…