智利 2Q26 GDP：浅度衰退，复苏在即

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August 18, 2026 04:06 PM GMT

Chile Economics | Latin America

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Nicolas Eterovic

Economist

Chile 2Q26 GDP: A Thin

Recession, A Recovery Ahead

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.

Julia Lobato Barbosa

Economist

Key Takeaways

2Q26 GDP fell -0.02% q-o-q sa, below consensus (+0.30%); a downward revision

to 1Q26 (-0.32% vs. -0.48%) confirms a razor-thin technical recession in 1H26.

Non-mining GDP grew +0.73% y-o-y, low but steady, while mining (-6.43% y-o-y)

turned positive sequentially (+0.61% q-o-q sa).

Domestic demand cooled, and investment stayed flat, but the Omnibus bill

should support a 2H26 pickup; we expect a residual December cut to 4.25%.

A technical recession, confirmed but by a whisker. Chile's GDP contracted -0.02%

q-o-q sa in 2Q26, below Bloomberg consensus of +0.30%. The release also revised

1Q26 GDP to -0.32% y-o-y from -0.48%, softening, without reversing, the 1H26

recession narrative. The q-o-q annualized pace came in at -0.06%, an acceleration

relative to 1Q26, consistent with a bottoming-out pattern. Annual growth improved

modestly to -0.19% y-o-y, still below consensus (+0.10%).

Mining remains the story; non-mining remained stable. Non-mining GDP grew

+0.73% y-o-y (1Q26: +0.15%), which was positive but underwhelming. Mining fell 6.43% y-o-y, yet posted a positive sequential read (+0.61% q-o-q sa), consistent with

the rebound already visible in June's activity and IMACEC data. Personal services

(+2.44% y-o-y), trade (+2.45% y-o-y), real estate (+2.33% y-o-y) and financial services

(+3.13% y-o-y) all grew solidly, while construction (-3.23% y-o-y) remained the clear

laggard.

Domestic demand cooled, but did not collapse. Household consumption

decelerated to +1.16% y-o-y and fell -0.54% q-o-q sa. Government consumption

reversed sharply (-3.83% q-o-q sa) after 1Q26's fiscal-driven surge — payback rather

than a stance shift. Domestic demand overall slowed to +0.06% y-o-y but stayed

marginally positive sequentially (+0.11% q-o-q sa). Investment remained essentially

flat at +0.02% y-o-y, with machinery investment (+3.73% y-o-y) stabilizing

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