Australia Gold: Model updates: Still bullish on Gold, cautious on costs, NST downgraded to Neutral

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17 Aug 2026 11:19:57 ET │ 31 pages

Australia Gold

Model updates: Still bullish on Gold, cautious on costs, NST

downgraded to Neutral

CITI'S TAKE

We update our gold coverage (NST, EVN, GMD, RRL, GGP, PRU) following

the JunQ. Despite a ~9% reduction to our FY27E AUD gold price, we remain

bullish: our commodities team’s 6-12 month point target is unchanged at

US$5,000/oz, with the deck rising from US$4,250/oz in SepQ26 to

US$5,000/oz by DecQ27 (Metal Matters). The FY27 cut is phasing, not a

change to the structural view, as a June year end captures the current

US/Iran-driven soft patch. We still take FY27E EBITDA down ~20% ex-EVN

(-5%), with AISC up ~4-12% through FY27/28E on diesel (Brent +34% YoY)

and contractor repricing, and growth capex up to +87%. TPs also cut. We

downgrade NST to Neutral following the largest AISC increase (+12%) and

FY27 production cut (-9%), and 788koz hedged at A$3,397/oz, limiting gold

price upside. Across coverage, we prefer GMD where the VAU acquisition

offers material upside, supported by a de-risked capex profile.

Thiago Ojea AC

Jack Whelan AC

With this update we transfer coverage of NST.AX, EVN.AX, GMD.AX and RRL.AX to

Thiago Ojea.

Figure 1. Model changes

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Note: Net income is underlying for all companies except GGP who only report stat net income.

Source: Citi Research, Company Reports