China Property: Jul NBS: Investment Further Weakens; Land Supply Constrains Volumes

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17 Aug 2026 11:22:11 ET │ 17 pages

China Property

Jul NBS: Investment Further Weakens; Land Supply Constrains Volumes

CITI'S TAKE

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Jul NBS: widened starts & REI decline — Jul-alone: [1] Starts -28%yoy (Jun: -26%),

the largest YTD drop, to 35msm GFA. [2] Completion -19% (Jun: -25%) to 20msm

GFA. Both starts and completion have retreated to around Jul-2003 level. [3] REI 27% (Jul: -24%), the largest YTD decline. [4] Primary/secondary prices stabilizing at

T1 cities (flat/+0.2%mom) and at narrower yoy decrease across all tier of cities; [5]

Residential sales -9%yoy (Jul -12%), GFA sold -15% (Jul -13%). [6] Completed but

unsold inventory -0.8%yoy & inventory within 3 years -3.6%. [7] CREIS 300-cities

Jun land sales GFA/ value -25%/-13% (Jun: -14%/ -18%); MoF 1H26 land sales

revenue -31%yoy. Macro cooler in Jul: export decelerates (+24% in US$), inflation

moderates (CPI +0.5%, PPI +3.5%), new Rmb loan turned negative in low season (Rmb340bn), retail slows (+0.6%, Jun +1.0%), and soft FAI (-10%).

Griffin Chan AC

Cindy Li

Primary market downsizing on 21-year low land supply — Land sales likely hitting

a new low since 2005, after 7M26 land sales value/GFA -32%/-27%yoy, bringing

likely further downsize in national primary market (sales & construction), in our view.

We reckon the recovery in sales volume and price stabilization remains concentrated

in a handful of cities; we estimate the 6 key cities accounted for only 5-6% of new

home sales nationally and c.10% of lands sold in 300 cities.

29 out of 50 cities posted new home sales growth in Jul — (i) New home volume in

50 cities only down 4%yoy in July (per Proptech), and 29 cities (60%) were at growth,

led by T1 & T3 cities, while T2 cities was dragged by less launches. Sell-through was

mom stable at 33% & high-end units at core district in core cities continued to sell

well (e.g. HZ, SZ, CQ, Suzhou, etc.). (ii) Secondary volume in Jul +9%yoy across 18

cities (per WIND), led by T1 cities +14%yoy, and listings was flat mom. The weekly

volume of 25k units is healthy (5% above 2025 avg) during a typically slow summer

season. Hefei market benefit from tech company new listings. Secondary prices in 6

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