Global Metals & Mining: Jul‘26 China excavator sales +14%y/y, hit all-time high for the month, 7M‘26: +25%y/y

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17 Aug 2026 11:32:27 ET │ 9 pages

Global Metals & Mining

Jul’26 China excavator sales +14%y/y, hit all-time high for the month,

7M’26: +25%y/y

CITI'S TAKE

China excavator sales are seen as a leading indicator of construction activity

(and consequently metals demand). Jul'26 excavator sales at 19.5k units

were up 14% y/y, which has taken 7M’26 to +25%y/y. 7M has on average had

66% of annual sales happening during the period, and June in particular

6.1% of annual sales. FY'25 excavator sales were 235.3k, down 30% from

the 338k units peak in ‘21. Extrapolating the relatively strong 7M’26 using

normal seasonality, one could be looking at FY’26 at 263k units (+12%y/y)

and extrapolating only Jul’26 would be 319k units (+36%y/y and close to alltime highs). For 7M’26 exports were up 32%y/y while domestic sales were

up only 19%y/y. Excavator sales could be seen as a sign of demand

conditions for construction over the next 6-9 month.

The construction contractor order intake trends in China have been pointing to a

slowing in the rate of growth in infrastructure — Order intake from infrastructure

construction contractors in China has led demand for commodities from

infrastructure by 5-6 quarters.

Excavator sales had been motoring along 2017-2021 before slowing sharply

2022-2024 and recovering slowly the last couple of years — Excavator sales have

been growing for some time and investors have been looking at it as a cross-check

on the demand for steel in China (as both are driven largely by property construction

and infrastructure). 2017 volumes +100%y/y, 2018 +45%y/y, 2019 +16%y/y, 2020

+39%y/y, 2021 +3%y/y. 2022 excavator sales were -23%y/y, 2023 were -25%y/y,

2024 only up 3% and 2025 recovery was stronger at +17%y/y.

7M’26 excavator sales up 25%y/y (2025: +17%y/y), Jul’26: +14%y/y — 7M’26 sales

at 172k units were up 25%y/y. 7M has on average accounted for 66% of annual sales

happening in the period. Extrapolating 7M’26 using normal seasonality, one could

be looking at FY’26 at 263k units, +12% y/y. Extrapolating just 19.5k units for Jul’26

(on average June is 6.1% of annual sales) one could be looking at 319k units for ’26

…