Geely Automobile (0175.HK): Analyst Briefing Summary & Our 3Q/4Q Core-NP Forecast

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17 Aug 2026 11:32:27 ET │ 13 pages

Geely Automobile (0175.HK)

Analyst Briefing Summary & Our 3Q/4Q Core-NP Forecast

CITI'S TAKE

We joined Geely’s analyst briefing with positive feedback: (1)2026E export

target was revised from 640k to 920k; export is to contribute 2/3 of total

sales LT. (2)2H26E new models: Zeekr 9X Grand/8X (overseas), Lynk&Co

20/07GT, Galaxy TT/Zhanjian 700 and China Star Preface L Plus and a

Flagship i-HEV SUV. (3)High-end strategy: Zeekr 1H-sales at 178k (1Q: 77k,

2Q: 101k), 1H export at 42k and full-year export target of 80k+, brand

GPM>20%. (4)2Q/3Q GPM: 2Q-GPM improved by mix upgrade (Zeekr) and

strong export (7-10ppt GPM higher than domestic), 3Q-GPM flat or up QoQ

with locked/hedged price/cost inflation. (5)AI development: more featured

G-ASD, smart cockpit, super-charging in 2H. (6)Mgmt. transition: Mr. An

Zhihui takes over as Chairman of Geely Auto. 2H forecasts: We forecast

Geely's core-NP at Rmb6/6.6bn in 3Q/4Q26, driven by export volume

growth, improving per-vehicle margins, and stable domestic wholesale with

mild destocking in 3Q and restocking recovery in 4Q.

3Q/4Q Core-NP forecast — We expect Geely to deliver around Rmb6bn/6.6bn

core-NP in 3Q26 & 4Q26 with the following assumptions: (1) Geely destocked 19k

units inventory in the domestic market over July, and we foresee a neutral inventory

strategy to continue into Aug/Sep with 3Q domestic wholesale at 1%/4% MoM pace

(439k units), followed by 4Q domestic wholesale at 471k units. (2) We estimate 3Q

export volume at 326.4k units with Aug/Sep MoM at 2%/2%, followed by 347k units

in 4Q26. (3) Export 3Q/4Q NP-per-vehicle should improve by 3.8%/3.7% QoQ due

to mix upgrade (more high-end models & better volume)—as a result 3Q/4Q export

core-NP should arrive at Rmb4.4/4.85bn, in our view. (4) Domestic 3Q NP-pervehicle should stabilize at -0.4% QoQ with mild destocking, while 4Q domestic

wholesale QoQ should recover by around 2.8% from mild re-stocking toward yearend, which should round up 3Q/4Q domestic wholesale NP at Rmb1.58/1.74bn,

respectively.

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Buy

Catalyst Watch: Upside, expires 08-SEP-26

Price (17 Aug 26 16:10)

HK$18.67

Target price

HK$30.00

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