摩根大通 | 宏观观点（及关键图表）

研报英文原文证据摘录

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales

16 August 2026

JPMORGAN

JPM | THE HOUSE VIEW (& key charts...)

Matthew See

JPM’s Economists & Strategists share their views on the outlook ahead. 5x which caught my eye this week are below:

1. Global Macro (Bruce Kasman): Consumer resilience… but a jobs uplift is still needed (link)

2. Asia Macro (Sajjid Chinoy): China’s growth challenge... & Japan’s fiscal challenge (link)

3. Global FX Strategy (Meera Chandan): Ending JPY weakness… requires policy change (link)

4. JPM Perspectives (Joyce Chang): Food security is national security… a compounding storm (link)

5. Eye on the Market (Michael Cembalest): The Year of the Fire Horse... & the Trojan Horse (link)

#1 - GLOBAL MACRO | Consumer resilience… but a jobs uplift is still needed (B. Kasman)

Resilient households - Spending their way to above trend growth.Consumer spending in US and Western Europe has

proven to be remarkably durable despite the energy shock (which weighed on real incomes). Over the past year, we estimate

the G4 savings rate has fallen 1.6ppts y/y - with the consumption uplift, in turn, driving an uplift in corporate profits and a

positive impulse in business spending. The result = JPM’s forecast for above potential global GDP growth in 2H26.

Wealth vs income - Spending the wealth, hoping for jobs. Consumers have been spending their wealth gains, which for G4

has been an impressive +10% since end-24 (US +13%, Japan +9%, Euroarea +7%). From here, the hope is that the recent

slide in real incomes reverses - as business spend broadens to include a pick-up in hiring. Notwithstanding the disappointing

US July payrolls report, a tentative pickup in DM job growth is underway, and JPM forecasts job growth lifts to 1%

annualised in 2H26.

Lackluster labour markets - Remains the key macro risk. The biggest risk to the global economy is that labour markets

remain weak, wage disinflation continues, & consumer price inflation stays elevated. Absent the labour market recovery that

households are hoping for to replace fading wealth effects, spending growth will deteriorate and this could short-circuit the lift

in business optimism and further weigh on hiring.…