全球经济展望摘要

研报英文原文证据摘录

Maia Crook (1-212) 622-8435

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-5735

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

Global Economic Research

JPMORGAN

14 August 2026

Global Economic Outlook Summary

Real GDP

% over a year ago

% over previous period, saar

Consumer prices

% over a year ago

2025

2026

2027

1Q26

2Q26

3Q26

4Q26

1Q27

2Q27

4Q25

2Q26

4Q26

2Q27

United States

Canada

Latin America

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Ecuador

Mexico

Peru

Uruguay

2.1

1.9

2.1

4.4

2.3

2.5

2.6

3.7

0.5

3.4

1.8

2.1

0.8

1.9

2.7

2.0

1.0

2.6

3.0

1.4

3.0

1.1

2.0

1.6

1.8

3.0

1.3

3.2

1.5

2.0

1.7

2.9

1.4

2.1

-0.1

1.6

3.0

4.5

-1.1

2.4

4.5

-2.4

2.4

3.2

1.5

3.0

2.9

-1.5

2.0

1.2

2.5

0.3

6.1

2.5

0.4

2.5

1.4

1.6

3.8

1.2

4.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

4.0

0.0

1.8

1.4

2.1

4.5

1.0

3.5

0.5

2.0

2.5

1.0

2.3

1.7

2.1

4.0

2.4

2.5

1.5

3.0

1.0

3.5

1.3

2.3

1.7

1.3

2.0

0.4

3.0

2.0

2.3

1.3

2.7

0.0

2.7

2.2

3.9

31.8

4.5

3.4

5.3

1.4

3.7

1.4

4.0

3.8

3.0

4.3

32.8

4.6

4.0

5.8

1.9

3.9

4.0

3.1

3.6 h

2.7

4.4

29.4

4.9

3.8

6.2

2.2

3.7

4.1

4.3

1.9 h

1.6

3.8

20.5

3.8

3.4

5.9

1.5

3.5

3.2

5.1

Asia/Pacific

Japan

Australia

New Zealand

EM Asia

China

India

Ex China/India

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Korea

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Taiwan

Thailand

4.5

1.1

2.0

0.2

5.2

5.0

7.7

4.0

3.6

5.1

1.1

5.2

4.4

5.0

8.8

2.4

4.3

0.9

2.0

2.1

5.0 h

4.6

6.5

5.2 h

4.7 h

5.0

3.8

5.5 h

3.5

5.4 h

11.4 h

2.8

3.9

1.1

1.8

2.3

4.5 h

4.3

6.3

4.0 h

2.9

4.9

3.3

4.5

5.3

4.0 h

4.6 h

2.5

5.7 h

1.8

1.1

3.2

6.6 h

6.3

8.0

6.5 h

12.1

5.6 h

7.5

1.6 i

3.8

5.0 i

10.2 h

2.7

2.8 i

1.9

1.6

1.2

3.1

2.4

5.1

3.7 i

-2.5 i

5.2 h

2.5

9.3 h

2.3

5.7 h

5.7 i

0.8

3.8 h

1.0

1.5

3.4

4.4 h

4.3

5.0

4.1 h

4.3 h

3.7

4.0

5.0

6.5

3.5 h

4.5 h

2.8

4.3 h

1.3

1.9

1.2

4.8 h

4.9

6.2

3.8 h

3.6 h

2.9

3.0

4.5

7.0

4.5 h

5.5 h

2.8

4.1 h

1.0

1.5

4.0

4.6

4.5

6.3

4.1 h

3.0

6.0

3.5

4.0

4.1

4.0 h

4.0

2.8

4.1

1.2

1.7

1.0

4.7

4.5

6.7

4.1

2.8

5.8

3.5

4.0

5.5

4.0 h

4.0

2.4

1.2

2.7

3.6

3.1

0.9

0.6

0.8

1.8

1.3

2.8

2.4

1.4

1.7

1.2

1.3

-0.5

2.0

1.5

3.9

4.1 h

1.9

1.1

4.1

2.9

1.9

2.9

3.0

2.0

6.8

1.8 h

2.2

2.7

2.3

2.9

3.9

3.9 h

2.1

1.0

5.6

3.2

1.7

3.4

3.5

2.1

6.5

2.4

2.4 h

3.1

1.9

2.3

3.6

2.4

1.7

0.7

5.5

2.3

1.6

2.7

2.6

1.8

3.8

1.9

1.8 h

0.6

Western Europe

Euro area

Germany

France

Italy

Spain

Norway

Sweden

United Kingdom

EMEA EM

Czech Republic

…