Entain PLC：H1后模型更新：预测现反映中欧和东欧去合并；2027年12月目标价1050便士（此前1025便士）

研报英文原文证据摘录

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Europe Equity Research

14 August 2026

Entain PLC

Model update post H1: Estimates now reflecting CEE

de-consolidation; Dec-27 PT to 1,050p (vs prior 1,025p)

Overweight

ENT.L, ENT LN

Price (14 Aug 26):557p

▲Price Target (Dec-27):1,050p

Prior (Dec-27):1,025p

We update our model following Entain’s H1 results yesterday (first take here),

keeping our revenue and EBITDA forecasts broadly unchanged (table 1). Our

model now reflects CEE de-consolidation starting FY 26.

For FY 26, we now model Online NGR organic growth of +7.0% (vs. +6.8%

previously), i.e. the top end of the company’s +5–7% guidance, implying H2

growth of +7.5% (a touch above H1’s ~7%). We see upside risk to this estimate as:

(i) sports win-margin comps in H2 are easier, particularly across International

(Italy, Brazil); and (ii) our model implies a (somewhat conservative) step-down in

UK Online organic growth, from +13% to +7%.

On underlying EBITDA, our FY 26 estimate is £935m (ex-CEE and parent fees),

at the midpoint of the company’s £910–960m guidance. This implies an Online

margin of ~21% (vs. guidance 21–22%) and broadly flat Retail EBITDA y/y, in line

with company guidance. Elsewhere, we flag an uptick in leverage to ~3.6x (vs.

~3.2x previously), reflecting the mechanics of CEE deconsolidation. As a

reminder, the company guides to <3.0x leverage by FY 28 or earlier following the

full sale of CEE (JPM FY 28e: ~2.9x).

Our Dec-27 PT comes in at 1,050p (vs. 1,025p previously; tables 3-4). This reflects

a lower Online multiple (8.0x vs. 8.5x) given Entain’s lower margins post CEE

de-consolidation. However, the lower core business EV is more than offset by CEE

value crystallization, with the remainder of the CEE stake now valued at ~9x

EBITDA (vs. ~8.5x previously in our SOTP), closer to the deal terms for the 20%

stake.

European Leisure, Hotels & Gaming

Estelle Weingrod AC

(44-20) 7742-8502

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Karan Puri

(44-20) 7742-8342

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Avni Garg

(91-22) 6157-3431

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Specialist Sales contact details:

Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales European Consumer

(44-20) 3493-3709

Key Changes (FYE Dec)

Revenue - 26E (£ mn)

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