中国房地产：2026年上半年业绩预览：空窗期尚未过去

研报英文原文证据摘录

Asia Pacific Equity Research

15 August 2026

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China Property

1H26 results preview: The air pocket hasn't passed

For developers, we expect most will see continual earnings decline (-17%

Y/Y among SOEs) due to well-expected DP margin squeeze. However, we

believe FY26E may potentially be the bottom for DP margin, and some

players may finally see a rebound in FY27E. For 1H26, CR Land may be

the only one with flattish earnings but solely because of disposal gain.

That said, we believe soft results are likely well-anticipated by investors,

and we believe contracted sales momentum may be bigger share price

drivers, and thus we continue to like SOE developers with focus on tier-1

cities and outperforming sales growth, including COLI, CR Land &

Jinmao. For property managers, we expect divergence to remain, with

CR Mixc / Greentown Service / Poly PS (all OWs) to deliver in-line

results, while our Underweight-rated names (e.g. COPL & other POEs)

will continue to see an earnings decline.

China, Hong Kong

Mainland China/Hong Kong

Property & Conglomerates

Karl Chan AC

(852) 2800-8513

Venus Choi

(852) 2800-8599

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/

J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

• Developers – not bottoming out yet: We forecast core net profit to drop

another 47% Y/Y, mostly dragged by POEs (JPMe: -84% Y/Y, due to

fewer DP bookings and margin squeeze) and CMSK (JPMe: -94% Y/Y,

which has been flagged by the company’s profit alert). For other SOEs

(excluding CMSK), we forecast an average of -17% Y/Y in core net

profit due to further DP margin squeeze (SOEs only: down from 14.5%

in 1H25 to 12.7% in 1H26E). Among all developers under our coverage,

we expect CR Land to be the only one with flattish earnings due to

disposal gain to C-REIT, excluding which we expect CR Land to see a

>10% Y/Y earnings decline due to more impairment provision. We

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