全球出行预测更新：2026年摩根大通汽车会议演讲要点及8月中旬预测更新

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

14 August 2026

Mobility Global Forecast Update

Takeaways from the 2026 J.P. Morgan Auto Conference

Presentation, and Mid-August Forecast Update

Takeaways from the 2026 J.P. Morgan Auto Conference presentation:

Autos & Auto Parts

Rajat Gupta AC

Mike Wall, Executive Director of Automotive Analysis for Mobility Global,

presented at our annual automotive conference on Wednesday, August 12.

Key takeaways are as follows:

Capacity and utilization. As demand growth slows, excess factory capacity

is increasing, with 2030 installed capacity expected to sit at nearly ~160 mn

units while supporting just ~97 mn units of production, a low utilization rate

of ~62%. The regional picture today already reflects that strain, with 2026E

utilization running at 81% in Japan/Korea, down from the ~84% seen before

2020; at ~69% in North America versus ~85% previously; at ~66% in Europe

vs. ~78% prior; and at just ~51% in Greater China, down from ~64% prepandemic.

Domestic producers dominate the Chinese market. Local Chinese OEMs

are steadily taking over production, with the share of China production held by

foreign OEMs expected to fall to ~18% by 2023 vs. as high as ~53% in 2018

and ~28% in 2026. Domestic demand, supported by the remaining NEV

incentives and now higher oil prices, is helping local automakers hold their

ground, but an ongoing price war keeps the pressure on consolidation. Western

brands face challenges on price, content and development speed, and are

leaning more heavily on local OEMs as new partnerships increasingly focus on

local-market needs, regionalization and software differentiation.

Chinese automakers are building capacity beyond China. Chinese

companies are rapidly building factories outside their home market, with

overseas capacity expected to head towards ~3.5-4 mn units by 2033 (~1.5 mn

today) in a build-out led by BYD and joined by SAIC, Great Wall, Changan,

Chery, SGMW and Geely. By 2033, the bulk of the capacity is expected to be

concentrated in South Asia, followed by Europe and South America, while

North America remains a question mark.

USMCA 2.0. The most likely trade structure outcome would be a ~10% US

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