东盟

研报英文原文证据摘录

Charnon Boonnuch (65) 6807 5086

Siddharth Jamad (65) 6807-5503

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch

Jin Tik Ngai (65) 6807 5556

ASEAN

Asia Pacific Economic Research

JPMORGAN

15 August 2026

… and Malaysia

We have raised our GDP growth forecasts further for

Singapore and Malaysia after strong 2Q26 outturns

The authorities unveiled fiscal consolidation plans for

2027 in Indonesia and the Philippines

Next week, we expect 2Q26 GDP growth to be resilient

in Thailand, exceeding the consensus forecast

We expect the BI to leave its policy rate unchanged

amid the leadership transition

Final 2Q26 GDP growth in Singapore and Malaysia was

stronger than expected, prompting an upward revision to our

GDP growth forecasts further for both countries. Next week,

our focus shifts to Thailand, where we also expect a positive

surprise.

We expect the BI to leave its policy rate unchanged for the

second consecutive meeting, as FX pressures remain broadly

unchanged from July. The focus will be more on the policy

communication of the new Acting Governor.

Raising our GDP forecasts for Singapore...

Singapore’s 2Q26 GDP growth was revised up more than

expected to 5.9%oya from 5.7% (J.P. Morgan and consensus:

5.8%oya). In seasonally adjusted terms, GDP advanced

5.7%q/q, saar, a further step up from an already-solid 5%ar

pace over the previous two quarters. On the production side,

the solid 2Q outturn was underpinned by a sharp re-acceleration in the goods sector (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Singapore real GDP growth - sector contributions

%pt contribution to %oya

Manufacturing

10

Trade services

8

Domestic services

6

Construction

Modern services

GDP

4

2

2Q growth in Malaysia was also revised up from 5.8%oya to

6%oya. In sequential terms, GDP advanced at a robust

9.3%q/q, saar, though this came on the back of a weak 1Q

outturn of 1.6%ar. Outside agriculture, sequential growth

accelerated across all sectors in 2Q, reversing the broad-based

loss in GDP momentum observed in 1Q. Moreover, unlike

previous quarters, the solid manufacturing gain in particular

was driven by both tech and non-tech production, underscoring a broadening of goods sector strength compared to 2H25.

…