SGH Ltd FY26 result: SOTP supportive, but lacking certainty on growth drivers

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

11 August 2026

SGH Ltd

FY26 result: SOTP supportive, but lacking certainty on

growth drivers

Neutral

SGH.AX, SGH AU

Price (11 Aug 26):A$41.58

▲Price Target (Aug-27):A$43.00

Prior (Jul-27):A$42.90

The FY26 result came in weaker than JPMe and the market had expected, with

EBIT of $1,554m -2%/-1% vs. JPMe/consensus (NPAT 5%/4% below JPMe/

consensus). Although SGH has SOTP support, today’s result suggests that growth

rates are unlikely to accelerate without M&A in the near term (something that

remains uncertain despite balance sheet capacity). While management continues

to drive operational improvement, we assume that SGH will generate a low-singledigit EBIT CAGR till FY28, given headwinds across: (1) Coates (competition);

and (2) Boral (our view is that end markets decline from 2HFY28) that are not fully

offset by: (3) Crux/Energy (FY28E); and a recovery in (4) WesTrac (which faces

a less certain long-term outlook). While there are other clear positives out of

today’s result (noting the property portfolio and opportunity to organically grow

the existing business), these will likely take longer to generate meaningful returns.

Our SOTP valuation is $43/share (was $42.90), and we remain at Neutral.

Boral 2H26 margin disappointment, recovery in FY27, but cycle still

matters: 2H EBIT margin of 13.5% came in 100bps below our estimate (in part

due to less over-recovery of diesel price than we had assumed). Despite this,

we expect margin expansion back to a ~15% EBIT margin in FY27, supported

by cost initiatives across labor and transport, with potential upside from the

Asphalt business (~18% of Boral earnings). We expect FY29 to be pressured

by a reduction in infrastructure projects (and a slower-than-expected

residential ramp). After this, earnings should be supported by the Brisbane

Olympics (as with Coates).

FX impacting WesTrac sales growth in FY27: WesTrac delivered EBIT

of $647m (+1% YoY) as capital sales normalised back to the lower end of the

normal $1.6b-1.8b range. We assume -1% EBIT growth in FY27, with FX not

fully offset by cost reductions. Looking beyond FY27, management expressed

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