Austal Limited: RemainCo - What‘s left floating

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

11 August 2026

Austal Limited

Neutral

ASB.AX, ASB AU

Price (11 Aug 26):A$4.51

RemainCo - What’s left floating

▲Price Target (Dec-26):A$4.60

Prior (Dec-26):A$4.40

Hanwha’s offer (here) for Austal USA will likely remove an otherwise

underperforming segment which has delivered negative or low returns in four of

the past five years. We believe that this transaction would allow for increased

capital management opportunities and for the remaining company (RemainCo) to

exit USA losses and focus on executing the secured AUS pipeline. The deal implies

RemainCo valuation of between 2.3x-5.7x EV/EBIT, 1 std. deviation below the

historical group multiples. RemainCo is supported by new SSA contracts in the

AUS segment allowing cost recovery plus margins on overhead as ASB ramps

production into 1H27. Further analysis overleaf; Neutral, PT A$4.60.

RemainCo multiples: We believe that the transaction value of US$1.05b-US

$1.20b is compelling for the US business, assuming the upgraded Australian

segment EBIT of A$87m (vs. FY25/FY24 EBIT of A$36m/A$-13m) as a new

baseline. Using the current offer and FY26 unaudited EBIT, the US transaction

implies a RemainCo (AUS + corporate) valuation of 2.3x-5.7x EV/EBIT roughly a single std. deviation below the historical 3-year multiple. Downside

to AUS EBIT makes the price materially less attractive (sensitivity overleaf).

Bridging FY26: ASB’s FY26 group EBIT is now expected to be a loss of A

$113m following provisions taken against Austal USA, implying material

outperformance in Australasian shipbuilding in 2H26. Management expects to

incur A$175m of losses in the US, noting our estimates factor A$50m of USA

Support EBIT and implying A$225m of losses in the USA shipbuilding

business. Losses reflect 1) the unwinding of variable contributions previously

recognised in 1H26; 2) reinstating provisioning unwound in 1H26; and 3)

additional provisioning in 2H26 as a result of onerous contracts (US

Shipbuilding EBIT bridge provided overleaf). Noteworthy, the benefit from

MMF3 proceeds (JPMe ~A$23m in FY26) is incorporated into these losses.

Outgoing US tide: US shipbuilding has seen limited success (incl.…