Venture Global, Inc.: 2Q26 EBITDA In-Line; 2026 Adj EBITDA Guidance Lifted on Higher Spreads and Tightened Volume Range

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

11 August 2026

Venture Global, Inc.

2Q26 EBITDA In-Line; 2026 Adj EBITDA Guidance

Lifted on Higher Spreads and Tightened Volume Range

VG reported 2Q26 adj EBITDA of $2,491mm, in line with the $2,461mm JPMe

and the $2,517mm Street median estimate. VG raised the 2026 adj EBITDA range

to $8.70 - $9.10 bn ($8.28bn JPMe/$8.45bn Street Median) from $8.20 - $8.50bn,

reflecting higher spreads and tightened volume guidance. The guide assumes a

$12.50 - $13.50/mmbtu weighted average liquefaction fee on remaining 2026

unsold cargoes, with a +/- $1.00/mmbtu move impacting 2026 adj EBITDA by

$180 - $210mm. On volumes, VG now expects 500 - 518 cargoes in 2026, versus

494 - 523 prior. Separately, VG refined Plaquemines bolt-on FID timing to 1H27

from 2027 previously. On the call, we look for management's latest view on spot

pricing, commercial contracting discussions, potential CP2 commissioning

timeline acceleration, and long-term capital allocation priorities. Early investor

feedback appears mixed on the magnitude of the 2026 EBITDA uplift, given

elevated expectations into the print, though macro developments could shape

trading today.

Favorable pricing drives guide raise; cargo guidance tightened at CP and

Plaq. Bridging the updated versus prior 2026 EBITDA guide, VG notes

favorable commodity pricing dynamics impacting uncontracted volumes (+

$555mm), incremental contracts signed (+$145mm), and an improved volume

outlook (+$52mm). On volumes, VG expects to export 149-154 cargos from

Calcasieu (147-154 prior), and 351-364 cargos from Plaquemines in 2026

(347-369 prior). VG stands 91% contracted on 2026 cargoes. Calcasieu Pass

produced 37 cargos in the quarter despite completing major scheduled

maintenance on its gas turbines.

Focus on backlog execution. On the project front, VG reaffirmed

Plaquemines Project Phase I COD in 4Q26, followed by Plaquemines Project

Phase II COD in mid-2027. VG stands in the final stages of commissioning and

rectification (pretreatment and power island) for Phase 1. CP2 continues to

advance well, with first LNG on schedule in 2H27. On CP2, VG now has 16

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