Centuria Industrial REIT: Significant disparity between transaction market and CIP implied value

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

11 August 2026

Centuria Industrial REIT

Significant disparity between transaction market and

CIP implied value

Overweight

CIP.AX, CIP AU

Price (11 Aug 26):A$3.13

▲Price Target (Jun-27):A$3.70

Prior (Jun-27):A$3.60

CIP delivered a solid FY26 result, in line with our forecast and guidance, with FFO

of $114.1m (18.2¢ps), driven by strong LFL NOI growth of 5.2% supported by

positive rent reversions from the ~17% under-rented portfolio, partly offset by a

20bp lift in WACD to 4.7% (albeit -10bp in 2H on refinancing). NTA rose 3.2%

to $4.01 on 6bp WACR compression, while gearing fell 100bp to 34.9% following

$200m in asset sales completed at an average 17% premium to book value. FY27

FFO guidance implies a healthy +3.0 to +5.5% growth, with the range likely

dependent on the lease timing of two vacancies. CIP trades at a 22% discount to its

$4.01 NTA, implying a 14% writedown in book value to a 6.7% cap rate (vs book

of 5.8%). We retain Overweight and lift our Price Target 10¢ to $3.70.

Rental reversion is a strong but moderating tailwind. LFL NOI growth held

at 5.2% in FY26 (5.8% in FY25), underpinned by +30% re-leasing spreads

ex-capped options/cold storage, down from 44% in 1H26 as the most underrented leases cycle through. Management noted spreads including the three

excluded deals were still "slightly over 20%" and that ~55% of leases expiring

over three years remained under-rented, supporting a ~+5% p.a. medium-term

NOI outlook. The key negative was occupancy slipping to 95.2%, with

Fairfield East and Bundamba vacancies the key swing factors in the FY27

guidance range. Both have active discussions with tenants underway, and we

assume Bundamba will be leased late in 1H and Fairfield East in 2H in our

forecasts.

Capital management. Gearing fell 100bp h/h to 34.9% due to the asset sales.

CIP is only 54% hedged in FY27 at a rate of 3.4%. Management guided its

WACD to increase to ~5.2–5.3% in FY27 vs 4.7% in FY26, and a rising WACD

remains an earnings headwind with minimal hedging beyond FY27.

Committed devex is only $20m with a potential further $95m to be spent on

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