Sea Ltd: First Take: Ecommerce guidance raised with 2Q26 results; need clarity on implied ecommerce margin guidance, fintech credit costs

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

11 August 2026

Sea Ltd

First Take: Ecommerce guidance raised with 2Q26

results; need clarity on implied ecommerce margin

guidance, fintech credit costs

Overweight

SE, SE US

Price (10 Aug 26):$114.80

Price Target (Jun-27):$162.00

Our First Take: SE reported 2Q26 adj EBITDA of $917m (+11% yoy, -11% qoq),

broadly in-line with expectations. The key positive in the results is that SE has raised

its ecommerce guidance and is now “optimistic” of achieving adj EBITDA of $1bn

vs JPMe of $988m and earlier guidance of at least $881m. As Shopee is the key driver

of SE’s valuation, we anticipate an initial positive reaction to the shares. Share price

could be further supported by increased share repurchases in 2Q26. However, we

await clarity on two main things which might eventually drive the share price: 1) the

ecommerce guidance implies margins to remain flat in 2H26 from 1H26 despite

expansion in 2Q26, and 2) there has been a notable increase in credit costs in 2Q26.

Key Positives

Compared to earlier guidance of FY26 ecommerce adj EBITDA of at least

$881m, SE is now “optimistic” that it will achieve ecommerce adj EBITDA of

$1bn (JPMe: $988m).

Within ecommerce, avg monthly active buyers have grown 18% yoy while

purchase frequency has increased 8% yoy. This is likely to have been supported

by the VIP program, where membership increased 45% qoq to > 15m.

Ecommerce core marketplace take-rate increased to 11.3% in 2Q26 vs 10.4%

in 1Q26. Rising take-rates have underpinned core marketplace revenues

growth of 66% to $4.3bn. Shopee's revenues have grown 48% yoy to $5.6bn,

7% ahead of JPMe. Shopee's adj EBITDA margins have expanded to 67bps

(JPMe: 61bps).

Gaming gross bookings sequentially declined less than expected to $763m

(JPMe: $733m), -18% qoq, +15% yoy. Gaming adj EBITDA of $430m is 3%

ahead of JPMe. Implied EBITDA margin is 56.3% vs 1Q26 of 61.6%

Fintech revenues grew 59% yoy to $1.4bn, 8% ahead of JPMe.

ASEAN TMT

Ranjan Sharma, CFA AC

(65) 6882-1303

J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited

Sigrid Qiu

(65) 6882-1454

J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited

Alex Yao

(86 21) 6106 6505

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