July NFIB: Optimism and Hiring Improve

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Update

August 11, 2026 11:21 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

U.S. Data Pulse | North America

Michael T Gapen

Chief US Economist

July NFIB: Optimism and Hiring

Improve

Lingdi Xu

Economist

Sam D Coffin

Economist

Key Takeaways

Diego Anzoategui

Economist

Small Business Optimism rose 2.4 points to 99.8 in July, above the consensus of

97.5 and marking the most optimistic reading we have seen so far in 2026.

Heather Berger

Economist

Uncertainty eased modestly but remained broadly stable around 90.

Hiring intentions and unfilled job openings both rebounded strongly, while

Global Economist

finding qualified labor remained a challenge.

Arunima Sinha

Price pressures showed deceleration, with fewer firms raising selling prices and

planning future price increases.

Labor quality, taxes, and inflation remained the top three concerns among small

businesses..

Exhibit 1:

Optimism remains elevated, though below post-election highs

NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index

(SA, 1986=100)

Trump 1.0

115

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

110

3-mo. MA

105

100

95

90

85

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

Source: National Federation of Independent Business, Haver Analytics, Morgan Stanley Research