Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

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M

Update

August 11, 2026 10:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

KEI Industries Ltd | Asia Pacific

Girish Achhipalia

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

What’s Changed

KEI Industries Ltd (KEIN.NS)

From

To

Price Target

Rs5,213.00

Rs5,897.00

Bull Case

Rs7,194.00

Rs8,218.00

Base Case

Rs4,984.00

Rs5,631.00

Bear Case

Rs2,931.00

Rs3,194.00

Updated Components

EPS

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Risk Reward for KEI Industries Ltd (KEIN.NS) has been updated

Reason for change

Estimates: We revise our EPS estimates by +13%, +4% and +3% for F27, F28 and

F29, respectively.

KEI Industries Ltd (KEIN.NS, KEII IN)

India Industrials | India

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 10, 2026)

52-Week Range

Equal-weight

In-Line

Rs5,897.00

Rs5,659.80

Rs5,708.00-3,712.20

Fiscal Year Ending

03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

EPS (Rs)**

Prior EPS (Rs)**

96.12 132.30 146.09 170.86

- 116.85 140.60 165.93

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

• Cable & Wires (C&W): We reduce our F27 revenue estimate by 4%,

reflecting slower volume growth in 1Q on account of demand softness in the

domestic and export markets, which have been impacted by the Middle East

conflict. For F28 and F29, we reduce our revenue estimates by 6% and 9%,

respectively. We mark to market commodity prices, assuming copper and

aluminum prices at 3–5% below spot. We assume a C&W revenue CAGR of

21% over F26-29. We increase our C&W margin assumptions by ~190bps for

F27, 100bps for F28, and 120bps for F29, reflecting 1Q performance &

outlook.

Price target: Reflecting these changes, our bull case rises 14%, our bear case rises

9%, and our base case rises 13%. This sees our probability weighted PT rise to

Rs5,897. We revise Rf to 6.8% (from 6.9% previously), in line with the 10-year GSec

rate, and roll forward our valuation to Sep-28 (from Mar-28). Key long-term

assumptions in our RI model remain unchanged.

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