PT Indo Tambangraya Megah: First Take: Pricing upside largely offset by higher costs in 2Q26

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

10 August 2026

PT Indo Tambangraya Megah

First Take: Pricing upside largely offset by higher costs

in 2Q26

Our First Take: ITMG reported 2Q26 net profit of US$51mn, down 6% q/q but

up 157% y/y. Earnings fell sequentially, which surprised us on the downside. 2Q26

blended ASP increased to $84/t (+7% q/q, +13% y/y), but this increase lagged the

+18% q/q rise in the Indonesian ICI2 coal benchmark price. We think a higher

DMO mix in 2Q26 slightly weighed on the blended ASP. That said, 2Q26 EBITDA

per ton only grew by 4% q/q to $17/t, or merely by $0.6/t in absolute value despite

a $5/t q/q price increase. Most of the ASP increase was offset by higher mining

costs, likely reflecting higher diesel cost pass-through by mining contractors.

Costs are likely to remain sticky in 3Q26 for now due to elevated diesel prices,

while coal prices have remained relatively stable quarter-to-date, but a significant

increase in RKAB could pose downside to coal prices into 2027. We expect the

share price to react negatively to the print.

Overweight

ITMG.JK, ITMG IJ

Price (10 Aug 26):Rp24,900

Price Target (Dec-26):Rp32,100

Indonesia Coal

Arnanto Januri AC

(622-1) 5291 8047

Benny Kurniawan, CFA

(62-21) 5291 8024

PT J.P. Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia

Key Positives

2Q26 coal production volume came in at 6mt, up by 11% q/q and 2% y/y,

despite a ~30% production quota (RKAB) cut for 2026. On the other hand,

ITMG might exhaust its existing 2026 RKAB by September if the government

doesn’t approve its revision in August.

Key Negatives

2Q26 blended ASP increased by 7% q/q, lower than the sequential increase in

ICI2 Indonesian coal price benchmark at +18% q/q. This likely reflects a higher

DMO contribution in 2Q26, of which coal sales to PLN (SOE electricity

company) are capped at $70/t.

2Q26 implied cash cost increased by 7% q/q, or by around $5/t, largely

offsetting the sequential increase in ASP. The cost increase was largely driven

by higher mining costs as miners passed through higher diesel prices.

Likely Changes to Consensus

We expect negative revisions to consensus estimates post print.

Expected Share Price Reaction

…