Compass: Taking Share, Synergies Ahead of Plan; Reiterate OW & $15 PT

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

10 August 2026

Compass

Taking Share, Synergies Ahead of Plan; Reiterate OW

& $15 PT

Overweight

COMP, COMP US

Price (07 Aug 26):$12.58

▲Price Target (Dec-27):$15.00

Prior (Dec-26):$14.00

COMP reported a strong, broad-based 2Q beat. Revenue of $4.31B (+14% Y/Y

pro forma) & Adj. EBITDA of $363M both came in ahead of the high end of

guidance & expectations. Importantly, COMP once again outperformed the

industry. Brokerage GTV rose ~16% Y/Y vs. a market up ~6% — ~1,000 bps

of outperformance & 21 straight quarters of organic share gains. Luxury

exposure & the NorCal AI-wealth boom helped drive the upside (SF Bay Area rev

+19% Y/Y in Jul/Aug). The 3Q guide reflects a normal seasonal step-down, w/ rev

of $3.85B-$4.05B & Adj. EBITDA of $275M-$305M. Notably, the FY26 nonGAAP OpEx guide moved up to $2.75B-$2.80B (from $2.70B-$2.75B prior), but

the increase reflects $35M from a July M&A & some additional outperformance

driven compensation expenses. On synergies, COMP actioned its entire $300M

Year-1 net cost synergy target 5 months early. It raised Year-1 actioned synergies

to $330M. It also lifted 2026 realized net synergies from $200M to $220M ($150M

in P&L and $70M in capex). Mgmt held the $500M three-year target, but it signaled

it will likely reach the target ahead of the prior 3-year timeline. Overall, we remain

positive on COMP’s leadership in residential real estate. We see synergydriven upside across both the top & bottom line. This layers on top of an

eventual housing recovery. While climbing mortgage rates remain a key risk

to volumes, we believe COMP’s luxury/less-rate-sensitive mix & self-help cost

levers provide meaningful offset. We reiterate our Overweight rating, and we

are establishing a December 2027 PT of $15 based on 7.5x our ‘28E Adj.

EBITDA of $1.7B.

Internet - Large Cap / Mid & Small

Cap

Dae K Lee, CFA AC

(1-415) 315-8500

Doug Anmuth

(1-212) 622-6571

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Key Changes (FYE Dec)

Prev

Cur Δ

Revenue - 26E ($ mn)

13,926 14,477 4.0%

Revenue - 27E ($ mn)

15,013 15,767 5.0%

Adj. EBITDA - 26E ($ mn)

899

907 0.8%

Adj. EBITDA - 27E ($ mn) 1,196 1,334 11.5%

Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

Adj.…