European Midcap Top Picks Mini Reshuffle: We add Deutz and take profits on Groupe SEB

研报英文原文证据摘录

10 August 2026

MIDCAPS

Midcap Research

European Midcap Top Picks Mini Reshuffle: We add Deutz and

take profits on Groupe SEB

Aleksander Peterc

Pal Skirta

Marie Line Fort

Susannah Ludwig

Annick Maas

Philippe Lorrain

Victor Acitores

In today’s mini reshuffle of our 10 European SMID preferred stocks, we enter Deutz as a new

best idea, and we take profits on the best performer since our last reshuffle, Groupe SEB.

DEUTZ (Outperform, PT €12.56): Consensus remains anchored to standalone DEUTZ

and does not yet reflect the earnings power of the combined DEUTZ-FFG entity. Following

extensive work on FFG, including discussions with management and investors, we now have

greater confidence that FFG's earnings are supported by recurring MRO activities, modular

vehicle programs and a growing OE business, rather than being predominantly a short-lived

Ukraine windfall. We therefore see materially greater earnings durability than the market

appears to assume. Our updated forecasts imply 32% EPS CAGR over 2026E-30E, driven by

the addition of a high-margin defence business and continued growth in Energy and Service.

As DEUTZ evolves from a cyclical engine manufacturer into a defence-exposed industrial

platform, we see scope for both earnings upgrades and valuation re-rating.

We entered Groupe SEB as a new best idea in our previous update (20 July - European

Midcap top picks update: Six new ideas for a more selective SMID market). After a strong

(c. +15%) outperformance triggered by a strong operating profit beat in 2Q, we take this

opportunity to lock in gains at this stage, although covering analyst Marie-Line Fort remains

constructive on the name, keeping her Outperform rating with a PT set at €73 (c.20% upside).

Since our last reshuffle on 20 July, our SMID top picks delivered an equal-weighted

performance of +4.0%, modestly outperforming the benchmark MSCI Europe Small index

(+0.47% relative).

Marios Pastou

Guillaume Delaby