Copa Holdings: 2Q26 Conference Call Highlights

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Latin America Equity Research

06 August 2026

Copa Holdings

2Q26 Conference Call Highlights

Overweight

CPA, CPA US

Price (05 Aug 26):$150.78

Latin American Transportation

Capacity Outlook. The company currently expects ASM growth of 14–15%

y/y, above its prior guidance of 11–13% y/y. Management acknowledges

having been conservative in its original estimates; however, as the year

progressed, several aircraft were delivered earlier than anticipated, coupled

with increasing utilization rates. The revision was further supported by a robust

demand environment. Half of the projected 2026 growth is attributable to the

full-year effect of last year's expansion, while approximately 10% relates to

new destinations, with the remainder driven by additional frequencies on

existing routes. The company has already announced one new route this year

and expects to announce another later this month.

Demand Environment. Demand trends and booking patterns remain strong.

Management expects the current elevated load factors to persist, forecasting

87% for the full year. The company currently has 75% of its 3Q capacity

already booked, compared to less than 20% prior to the war. For 4Q26, 25% of

capacity has already been sold. No material differences in performance have

been observed across regions.

Fuel Recapture & Fare Increases. Management remains confident in its

current fuel recapture strategy, underpinned by a strong demand environment.

The company notes that pre-conflict average fares were below 2019 levels in

nominal terms, reinforcing management's view that a portion of the current

price increases should prove sustainable once oil prices decline. On a unit

revenue basis, the company expects RASM growth of approximately +10% in

2H (vs. JPMe at +11% y/y), consistent across both 3Q and 4Q.

Fleet Management. Copa expects to receive one B-737 MAX 8 by year-end

(2Q26 fleet stood at 131 aircraft). In 2027, the company is scheduled to take

delivery of 12 aircraft evenly distributed throughout the year; management

reiterated Copa's fleet flexibility in phasing out certain planes, implying net

fleet additions of approximately 10 aircraft. While no guidance has been

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