1H26 Initial take - modest (and clean) beat, but upgrades unlikely

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M

Update

August 6, 2026 04:56 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Assicurazioni Generali | Europe

Hadley Cohen

Equity Analyst

1H26 Initial take - modest (and

clean) beat, but upgrades

unlikely

Daniel Wilson-Omordia

Equity Analyst

Alexa Psillos, FASSA

Equity Analyst

Assicurazioni Generali (GASI.MI, G IM)

Insurance | Italy

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Generali has delivered a strong set of 1H26 results this evening with group

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 6, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)*

EV, curr (mn)*

operating profit of €4.51bn ahead of consensus of €4.38bn. The beat is primarily

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Unchanged

Modest upside

Largely unchanged

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Equal-weight

In-Line

€41.00

€44.83

€45.03-31.76

€69,516

€72,240

driven by A&WM with modest beats in both P&C and Life divisions too importantly, though, this all appears to be clean on an underlying basis.

Solvency of 216% was in line with expectations and the company has announced the

launch of the already approved €500m share buyback (i.e. this is not new).

Overall, these numbers clearly demonstrate that Generali's operations remain in

very good shape. However, while these numbers are ahead of expectations, we note

that consensus is already assuming >12% annualised EPS growth for the plan period

2024-27 - well ahead of company targets of 8-10%. Therefore, we would not

currently expect much change to forward expectations - particularly with the shares

trading at c.13x 2027e earnings.

A conference call is scheduled for 11.30am UKT tomorrow morning and can be

followed here.

Looking through the details

Beginning with P&C, backwards engineering the reported 1H26 combined ratio of

91.5% (broadly in line with consensus of 91.4%), we estimate a YoY deterioration in

the undiscounted AY loss ratio, for the isolated 2Q26, of c.40bps. However, per slide

…