RXO Highlights from Calls with the Company and Model Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

06 August 2026

RXO

Highlights from Calls with the Company and Model

Update

Underweight

RXO, RXO US

Price (05 Aug 26):$21.00

▲Price Target (Dec-27):$22.00

Prior (Dec-26):$18.00

RXO delivered a 2Q beat and a 3Q guide above the Street that confirmed the longawaited earnings inflection is underway; however, the stock underperformed as the

buyside was likely looking for more meaningful operating leverage while the

recent Montgomery ruling and nuclear verdict remain a significant overhang. After

a lengthy period of underperformance, RXO returned to truckload volume growth

and delivered a meaningful sequential increase in gross profit per load driven by

a sharp step-up in spot mix as capacity continues to exit the market. Estimates

appear set to move higher as spot opportunities persist and contract rates reset

upward, but the key debate remains the post-Montgomery legal and insurance

landscape, which management believes is an opportunity to drive share gains as

both shippers and underwriters become more selective. We remain constructive on

the view that large, well-capitalized brokers should consolidate share postMontgomery, however we expect the fallout from the recent nuclear verdict to

weigh on brokers’ multiples as negligent hiring liability is defined on a state-bystate and even a county-by-county basis until a clear reasonable-care standard

emerges.

3Q guide points to continued brokerage momentum. RXO guided 3Q

adjusted EBITDA to $35-45mm, the midpoint of which is +14% above

consensus but flat with 2Q26 as brokerage strength is offset by an incremental

-$3-5mm sequential headwind in Last Mile. Management expects both TL and

LTL volume up low-to-mid single digits YoY alongside another sequential

increase in TL gross profit per load, underpinned by a higher spot mix as

capacity continues to exit the market. Management noted the midpoint embeds

no increase in demand and reflects a -10% sequential decline in TL gross profit

per load through September, which clears a path to the high end given the

metric has held roughly flat over that stretch on average over the past 3-5 years.

2Q comes in above the high end of guide.…