Data Center Inflection Drives Strong Results/Guidance; Record Bookings Point to Continued Momentum, but FY27 Setup Largely Discounted

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

06 August 2026

MACOM

Data Center Inflection Drives Strong Results/Guidance;

Record Bookings Point to Continued Momentum, but

FY27 Setup Largely Discounted

Neutral

MTSI, MTSI US

Price (05 Aug 26):$263.46

Price Target (Dec-27):$345.00

MTSI’s data center inflection is accelerating rather than maturing, and results,

guidance and forward commentary today all reinforced that, but in our view the stock

already largely discounts the FY27 setup mgmt framed, keeping us Neutral-rated.

Jun-Q revenue (+18% Q/Q), gross margin (+120bps Q/Q to 59.7%) and EPS ($1.40)

all landed ahead of Street consensus. Data center is now clearly MTSI’s primary

growth engine, with revenue up ~40% Q/Q (now ~40% of total revenue), and on pace

to grow ~74% Y/Y in FY26 (vs an initial +35-40% base case), and on our math DC

accounts for ~60% of MTSI’s total FY26 revenue growth. The Sep-Q guide implies

another leg up, with DC growing at least 35% Q/Q (to 44% of revenue) on 800G/1.6T

PAM4 across pluggables and indium phosphide (200G photodetectors now in volume

production, 400G sampling) emerging as a second leg. Order indicators remain

strong: book-to-bill hit a record 1.6x (versus 1.3x and 1.5x in the prior two Qs) on

record quarterly bookings and record backlog, while MTSI’s turns business fell to

11% of revenue from 18% - i.e. visibility improved even as revenue accelerated,

which we view as evidence that the ramp is not a pull-forward. I&D is also inflecting

on defense (mgmt guiding ~25% growth this year) with European exposure building

as the MESC capacity conversion completes, while telecom should accelerate as 2-3

LEO production programs start at end-CY26. Margin leverage continues to

materialize, with OpM improving to 31.5% and guided to ~37% in the Sep-Q on

roughly flat opex, implying ~61% incremental operating margin (JPMe) and leaving

MTSI exiting FY26 above 60% gross margin with operating margin just under 40%

(tracking to a 40%+ target in the next several qtrs). Notably, annualizing the Sep-Q

midpoint frames an FY27 base case of +27-28% company growth and +50% DC

growth, which given the order book we view as a floor rather than a ceiling.…