Siemens (SIEGn.DE): SI drives earnings upgrades, but DI should drive the share price

研报英文原文证据摘录

Action |

06 Aug 2026 13:47:12 ET │ 12 pages

Siemens (SIEGn.DE)

SI drives earnings upgrades, but DI should drive the share price

CITI'S TAKE

Our updated forecasts reflect the beat in Q3’26 in Smart Infrastructure (SI)

and resultant higher expectations for Q4’26, largely driven by ongoing

strength in datacentre markets. These upgrades more than offset the

trims we’ve made to Digital Industries (DI), but while our group forecasts

are now higher for both 2026 and 2027, we think it’ll be the DI Automation

Product margin momentum – not yet apparent in today’s numbers – that

we think will drive the share price. We’ve lowered our DI margin

expectation to 20.3%, but still expect margins to track towards ~22% on a

2-year view. We retain our Buy rating and €335 target price, but expect

the shares to be rangebound until FY27 guidance is set in November.

Buy

Price (06 Aug 26 17:30)

Target price

Expected share price return

Expected dividend yield

Expected total return

Market Cap

Changes to our forecasts — We raise our Industrial Business orders estimates for

FY26/FY27/FY28 by c. 9%/4%/4%, led by Mobility where FY26E orders increased by

c. 32% and SI by 7%, reflecting improved demand visibility and project momentum.

Revenue estimates were also revised upward, with Industrial Business sales

increasing by c. 1%/2%/3% for FY26-FY28. While FY27E Industrial Business organic

growth was trimmed by 46bps due to a weaker Mobility outlook, this was more than

offset by margin improvements, with Industrial Business adjusted EBITA margin

expanding by c.60bps in FY26 to 16.3%. Consequently, adjusted EPS estimates were

increased by c. 1%-6% for FY26-FY28. We retain our TP and Buy rating.

Martin WilkieAC

Avinash Mundhra

Vivek Midha, CFA

Klas Bergelind

Siron Ng

Siemens (EUR)

Year to 30 Sep

2024A

2025A

2026E

2027E

2028E

Sales (€M)

75,930.0

78,914.0

83,162.3

90,233.4

96,644.0

Net Income (€M)

8,366.8

8,268.7

9,304.3

10,407.4

11,339.0

Diluted EPS (€)

10.47

10.43

11.90

13.43

14.71

Diluted EPS (Old) (€)

10.47

10.43

11.41

13.31

13.99

PE (x)

26.1

26.2

23.0

20.3

18.6

EV/EBITDA (x)

16.5

16.6

14.1

12.4

10.9

DPS (€)

5.20

5.35

5.40

5.50

Net Div Yield (%)

1.9

2.0