ConocoPhillips (COP.N): Post 2Q26 Model Update

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06 Aug 2026 14:17:01 ET │ 14 pages

ConocoPhillips (COP.N)

Post 2Q26 Model Update

CITI'S TAKE

We update our COP model post 2Q26 results, lowering 3Q26e production

by c.2% to 2,305 kboepd, 1% below Visible Alpha consensus, reflecting the

impact of divested Lower 48 volumes and ongoing Qatar disruptions. That

said, we expect Qatar volumes to recover progressively through 3Q versus

the severe curtailments seen in 2Q. Despite the modest production

reduction, our 3Q26e adjusted net income remains c.2% above

consensus. Following the 2Q earnings beat, we raise our FY26e adj. net

income by 7%. We make no changes to our Buy rating and $150/share

target price.

Buy

Price (05 Aug 26 16:00)

US$115.04

Target price

US$150.00

Expected share price return

30.4%

Expected dividend yield

3.0%

Expected total return

33.4%

Market Cap

US$140,153M

Alastair R SymeAC

Kate O’Sullivan

Oliver G Connor

Tianhong Bi, CFA

EPS (US$)

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

FY

FC Cons

VA Cons

2025A

2.11A

1.43A

1.62A

1.03A

6.19A

6.16A

6.18A

2026E

1.90A

3.26A

2.39E

1.87E

9.40E

9.78E

9.49E

Previous

1.90A

2.91E

2.14E

1.83E

8.77E

na

2027E

1.78E

1.76E

1.79E

7.12E

9.05E

8.81E

Previous

1.76E

1.74E

1.77E

7.03E

na

2028E

2.01E

2.05E

2.03E

8.08E

9.30E

9.45E

Previous

1.98E

1.99E

2.03E

2.00E

7.99E

na

Source: Company Reports and dataCentral, Citi Research. FC Cons: First Call Consensus. VA Cons: Visible Alpha Consensus.

Click here for Visible Alpha consensus data