North American Utilities Weekly: 2Q26 In Review; Sentiment Check on Search for Safety; ERCOT Told to Hold Horses; MDU UG to OW; EIX Fire Investigation Heats Up; News Flow; Comps

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

07 August 2026

North American Utilities Weekly

2Q26 In Review; Sentiment Check on Search for

Safety; ERCOT Told to Hold Horses; MDU UG to OW;

EIX Fire Investigation Heats Up; News Flow; Comps

Sentiment check: more agreement than not with our views. Our top picks,

AEE, ETR and PPL, continue to screen as favorite names, as regulatory

exposure screens relatively limited given constructive jurisdictions with

stakeholder support of large load growth (PA aside). Last week’s feedback to

AEE and ETR earnings call screened positive, with the expectation for

incremental growth in the future. Even still, we think AEE’s 2.8GW in ESAs

fully ramping through 2029 remains underappreciated by investors. For PPL

this week, the $10-12bn of upside capex caught investor attention, as well as

progress on turbine reservations for the Genco JV (Invitium Energy). In the

search for lower regulatory risk, DUK continues to gain positive receptivity as

well. In conversations this week, FE debate persists, with some noting material

growth upside via WV, while others frame the company’s NJ/MD rate case risk

as overlooked. Post our MDU upgrade to OW, we witnessed broadly positive

investor feedback, grounded by views that appreciate MDU’s 1.2 Bcf/d of

signed precedent agreements as underpinning a materially higher confidence

level for Bakken East earnings contributions. However, we tracked some

degree of short positioning into the print. We look for an FID in the coming

months. EIX feedback skewed negative post the CALFIRE report, driven by

concerns over SCE’s ability to demonstrate prudency net of the findings. Here,

our buyside expectations largely framed an imprudency determination as the

most likely scenario, implying reliance on the ~$4bn reliability cap, while

debate centers on the probability of a more adverse outcome, including gross

negligence. We remain Neutral post the sell-off and contemplate the liability

cap in our valuation. After the WI PSC voted unanimously to revoke the

completeness determination in ATC’s (WEC) CPCN request for transmission

into the Port Washington substation, we hear some growing skepticism over the

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