US Focus: What’s up with manufacturing ISM

研报英文原文证据摘录

Michael S Hanson (1-212) 622-8603

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

North America Economic Research

07 August 2026

US Focus: What’s up with

manufacturing ISM

The ISM manufacturing index has surged this year, from a

depressed 47.9 reading in December to a robust 55.6 for July

(Figure 1). This rise followed surprisingly prolonged weakness: the index averaged just 48.0 for 2022 through 2025

despite GDP averaging a well-above-trend 2.6% annualized

growth. This rebound is unlikely to owe to a sudden improvement in the tariff outlook given recent actions. Moreover,

while the tech sector (as well as aerospace) has contributed

significantly to industrial output, this story hasn’t arisen in the

past six months. Rather, we view the puzzling combination of

a sustained slowdown and then a sudden rebound in the manufacturing ISM as mostly catching up to other indicators.

60

Services

56

Manufacturing

48

2Q07

4Q19

0.13

0.016

2Q07

4Q19

0.08

0.159

64

ISM services

production

0.32

0.000

0.25

0.000

0.33

0.000

0.20

0.007

60

PMI manuf

production

0.34

0.000

0.27

0.000

56

Adjusted R 2

0.27

0.37

0.38

0.41

0.42

0.53

0.48

0.54

48

19

20

Source: ISM, J.P. Morgan

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

This jump was broad-based across the components that comprise the index, with production up 7.8 points and new orders

up 9.3 points. While all components have risen year-to-date,

not all contribute to the ISM’s (limited) forecasting power for

growth. Rather, in addition to the headline, the production and

new orders series have some predictive power for the current

quarter of real GDP growth (% change, q/q saar).

Table 1: GDP growth regressions

Dependent variable: %q/q saar change in real GDP

1Q48 1Q48 1Q48 1Q48 3Q85 3Q85 3Q85 3Q85

Regressor(s)

2Q85 2Q85 2Q85 2Q85 4Q19 4Q19 4Q19 4Q19

ISM manuf

0.36

---0.25

---0.000

0.000

ISM Manuf

production

0.37

0.000

ISM Manuf

new orders

Adjusted R 2

0.43

0.48

-0.07

0.463

0.20

0.000

0.42 0.49

0.000 0.000

0.54

0.24

0.54

0.28

0.15

0.187

0.29 0.06

0.000 0.636

0.27

Table 2: GDP growth regressions (cont'd)

2Q07

4Q19

52

44

Building on this finding, we next compare the fit of the production indexes across ISM manufacturing, ISM services, and

PMI manufacturing.…