Andeans

研报英文原文证据摘录

Diego W. Pereira (1-212) 834-4321

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Juan Goldin (57 601) 869 8746

BANCO J.P. MORGAN COLOMBIA S.A

Latin America Economic Research

07 August 2026

Andeans

Chile: June activity data came in close to our expectations, rising 0.6% m/m, sa, or 1.4%oya

The consumer has proven more resilient than expected, and we anticipate a firmer pace of activity in 2H26

Colombia: The minutes suggest the Board’s configuration is more nuanced than a simple “hold vs hike” split

The monetary policy report presented by the Staff

made the case for a tighter monetary stance

Chile: Activity rose on mining and a resilient consumer

Chile’s June activity data came in in line with our expectations, rising 0.6% m/m, sa, after a (revised) mild contraction

in the prior month. The rebound was driven primarily by mining, while ex‑mining activity increased only modestly

(0.1%m/m, sa). Mining momentum has surged, but ex‑mining

activity remains soft, impacted by consumption deceleration

on higher gasoline prices, fiscal adjustment and lower investment. For the broader macro narrative, June reinforces our

view that household consumption, the key variable for assessing 2Q activity and the monetary outlook, has weathered the

2Q gasoline shock better than we had anticipated at the onset

of the conflict. Both commerce and services posted positive

monthly prints; commerce momentum, while still marginally

negative, continues to improve, and services has maintained a

positive lift through 2Q.

In the details, headline activity increased 0.6% m/m, sa,

matching our forecast, with the gain driven primarily by mining and, to a lesser extent, by commerce and services.

Ex‑mining activity rose a modest 0.15% m/m, sa, while mining surged 3.4% m/m, sa. Three‑month sequential momentum

for headline activity climbed to 1.2% 3m/3m, saar, from

-1.4% in 1Q. Ex‑mining momentum eased and printed near

flat at 0.3% 3m/3m, saar; while still soft, it is an improvement

relative to -0.5% in 1Q. On an oya basis (sa), headline activity rose 1.4%, with ex‑mining up 0.4% (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Chile economic activity

Index, Feb 2020=100, sa

125

115

Social

unrest

Ex.mining

Mining

COVID-19

105

95

85

75

Mar 16

Mar 18

…