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Interest rate forecasts
研报英文原文证据摘录
Francis Diamond AC (44-20) 7134-1504
J.P. Morgan Securities plc
Global Markets Strategy
JPMORGAN
07 August 2026
Interest rate forecasts
07-Aug
US
Euro area
vs. 6s
10Y spread
to Germany
(curve adj.)
Sep-26
Dec-26
Mar-27
Jun-27
YTD chg. (bp)
07-Aug
Sep-26
Dec-26
Mar-27
Jun-27
YTD chg. (bp)
Base rate
2Y bmk yield
5Y bmk yield
10Y bmk yield
30Y bmk yield
2s/10s bmk curve
10s/30s bmk curve
2s/30s bmk curve
2Y swap spread
5Y swap spread
10Y swap spread
30Y swap spread
3.75
4.27
4.45
4.91
5.66
64
75
139
-15
-23
-44
-72
3.75
4.25
4.35
4.80
5.45
55
65
120
-10
-22
-45
-70
4.00
4.20
4.35
4.80
5.45
60
65
125
-12
-24
-47
-68
4.00
4.15
4.35
4.75
5.45
60
70
130
-15
-26
-50
-65
3.75
4.10
4.25
4.70
5.40
60
70
130
-17
-26
-50
-65
56
58
42
44
-14
2
-12
4
7
9
3
Japan
Policy rate
2Y bmk yield
5Y bmk yield
10Y bmk yield
20Y bmk yield
30Y bmk yield
2s/10s bmk curve
10s/30s bmk curve
2s/30s bmk curve
1.00
1.56
2.07
2.79
3.65
3.91
123
112
235
1.00
1.45
1.95
2.95
3.85
4.10
150
115
265
1.25
1.50
2.00
2.95
3.85
4.10
145
115
260
1.25
1.50
2.00
2.95
3.85
4.10
145
115
260
1.50
1.60
2.05
3.05
3.95
4.10
145
105
250
39
52
72
67
50
33
-21
11
Australia
Cash rate
3Y bmk yield
10Y bmk yield
4.35
4.48
4.93
4.35
4.30
4.80
4.35
4.10
4.55
4.35
4.10
4.65
4.35
4.00
4.55
35
19
New Zealand Cash rate
2Y bmk yield
10Y bmk yield
2.50
3.62
4.68
2.75
3.60
4.50
3.00
3.70
4.50
3.25
3.70
4.50
3.25
3.70
4.50
62
24
Sweden
Repo rate
2-year govt
10-year govt
1.75
2.43
3.00
1.75
2.35
2.80
2.00
2.35
2.80
2.00
2.30
2.75
2.00
2.25
2.75
34
19
Norway
Depo rate
2-year govt
10-year govt
4.25
4.38
4.50
4.55
4.30
4.50
4.45
4.25
4.50
4.20
4.10
4.25
4.00
41
22
Fed funds
3.50-3.75 3.50-3.75 3.75-4.00 3.75-4.00 3.75-4.00
SOFR
3.64
3.65
3.90
2Y bmk yield
4.17
4.25
4.30
5Y bmk yield
4.32
4.45
10Y bmk yield
4.62
4.80
4.85
30Y bmk yield
5.18
5.35
5.40
2s/10s bmk curve
45
55
10s/30s bmk curve
57
55
2s/30s bmk curve
101
110
72
64
49
37
-23
-12
-35
UK
Refi rate
Depo rate
3M Euribor
2Y bmk yield
5Y bmk yield
10Y bmk yield
30Y bmk yield
2s/10s bmk curve
10s/30s bmk curve
2s/30s bmk curve
2Y swap spread
5Y swap spread
10Y swap spread
30Y swap spread
2.40
2.25
2.47
2.73
2.85
3.12
3.64
39
51
91
20
14
3
-37
2.65
2.50
2.60
2.70
2.95
3.45
35
50
…
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