July BLS Data Show a Step Forward for Temporary Help, Diverging from the Broader Job Market

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

07 August 2026

Business Services

July BLS Data Show a Step Forward for Temporary

Help, Diverging from the Broader Job Market

U.S. temporary help employment in the July 2026 BLS data showed a +3k

sequential, seasonally adjusted gain, further reinforcing our view of a gradual

temporary staffing market recovery following recent years of declines. On a year/

year basis, temporary help employment grew +0.4% in July, the first such increase

in nearly four years. Following normal-course revisions, May 2026 and June 2026

temporary help employment was revised up +3k in aggregate. On a non-seasonally

adjusted basis, staffing employment declined by -1.5% sequentially in July, in line

with typical seasonality. While a return to year/year growth supports our

overarching thesis of a temporary help recovery, we are still determining what

its ultimate shape might be. We presently anticipate the pacing of the rebound

will be moderate. We are not seeing clear signs of acceleration in month/month

temporary help data, and, despite recent indications of more-dynamic hiring

conditions from public staffers and background screeners, the Bureau of Labor

Statistics’ (BLS) jobs reports have been choppy in recent months. Case-in-point:

July non-farm payrolls (NFP) surprisingly contracted by -23k sequentially on a

seasonally adjusted basis. Private sector payrolls grew +30k m/m, seasonally

adjusted. Our JPM economists had expected NFP growth of +75k this month,

concentrated entirely in the private sector. In the household survey, the

unemployment rate declined on a sequential basis to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in

June. Our JPM economists highlight that July’s jobs numbers were weighed down

by a “perhaps quirky” -50k m/m local government education jobs, and that

“seasonal adjustment of this series can be tricky around the summer recess” (link

here). Our economists further see the current U.S. economy characterized by

“lackluster labor input growth.” That said, we believe that temporary help

currently has its own cycle, distinct from the overall job market’s trajectory.

Finally, a positive y/y reading for U.S. temporary help. The BLS reported

U.S.…