Humana Model Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

07 August 2026

Humana

Neutral

HUM, HUM US

Price (06 Aug 26):$367.24

Model Update

▲Price Target (Dec-27):$393.00

Prior (Dec-26):$316.00

Following earnings last week (see our takeaways from earnings and our follow-up

with management), we are updating our HUM estimates. HUM’s 2Q

earnings showed continued progression against reaffirmed guidance as the

company spoke to the drivers for a longer-term earnings recovery over 2027 and

2028. On this latter point, we think that HUM provided more detail around the

underpinnings of margin improvement, including a strategy of targeted plan exits

rather than broad-based benefit reductions (which the company worried would

impact higher performing plans). HUM continued to speak to its path towards at

least 3% MA margins in 2028, which we view as the critical driver of longer-term

upside to HUM. While HUM has grown materially in MA in 2026, we are

encouraged that the new cohort has progressed in line with management

expectations, given past instances of large new MA cohorts pressuring MLR for

MCOs. Our 2026e adj. EPS estimate increases slightly to $9.08 reflecting the

better-than-anticipated performance. We also increase our adj. EPS estimates for

2027e to $17.27, reflecting ~$8 in y/y improvement (driven by continued cost

savings, Individual MA MLR improvement, and CenterWell growth), where we

believe that HUM’s net exit of ~360K enrollment should help shift margins higher.

We introduce a December 2027 price target of $393 (previously December 2026

price target of $316) is based on a 14.0x P/E multiple applied to our 2028e adj. EPS,

balancing the repricing upside to HUM’s earnings (where we expect even without

stars that HUM should see margin improvement) with the general uncertainty

around the broader stars program. Despite near-term challenges, we still view MA

as an attractive long-term growth market within traditional managed care.

Managed Care and Facilities

Lisa C. Gill AC

(1-212) 622-6466

John Stansel, CFA

(1-212) 622-0083

Benjamin Rossi

(1-212) 622-9603

Cole Harris

(1-212) 622-9068

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Key Changes (FYE Dec)

Prev

15.03

Adj. EPS - 27E ($)

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