J.P. Morgan Market Watch

研报英文原文证据摘录

Dubravko Lakos-Bujas (1-212) 622-3601 Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou (44-20) 7134-7815

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Fabio Bassi (44-20) 7134-1989

Mika Inkinen (44-20) 7742 6565

J.P. Morgan Market Watch

Bonds

Bond yields declined this week amid easing energy price

pressures on de-escalation in Middle East tensions. A softerthan-expected US labor market report also contributed,

though the details of the report did not provide many signs of

a downshift in momentum. The report should marginally

reduce pressure for a Sep Fed hike, and we keep 2s/10s UST

curve steepeners. We also keep 5Yx5Y inflation breakeven

wideners on higher inflation premia given concerns around

moving the Fed’s goalposts.

In the Euro area, energy prices continue to be key drivers for

rate markets. With 10Y German yields still close to the upper

end of the range since the start of the US-Iran conflict, we

keep tactical longs in 10Y Bunds and longs in 10Y Bunds vs.

USTs. Intra-EMU, we stay cautious on carry exposures. In the

UK, we enter tactical long in Sep26 MPC OIS as we do not

see the centre ground of the MPC looking to guide to a Sep

hike and take profit on tactical longs in 10Y gilts. In Japan,

the government approved a plan to cut the consumption tax

rate on food next year, maintaining an expansionary fiscal

stance. We continue to expect a BoJ hike in Oct, and now see

three hikes in 2027. We keep 5s/20s curve steepeners

(GFIMS, Aug 7th).

In EM, we stay cautious after the July re-escalation in the

Middle East despite some more constructive headlines recently. We remain neutral overall on local duration given crosscurrents from oil prices, the Fed and mixed EM data. Regionally, we are UW Asia via Thailand and paid duration in low

yielders, OW EMEA EM via Hungary, and neutral Latam

with OWs in Colombia and Mexico offset by UWs in Chile

and Peru (EM Strategy Update, Jul 24th).

Credit

Record July HG issuance ($141bn) kept has brought 2026

supply to $1.33tr (70% of the $1.92tr FY forecast), implying upside toward ~$2.04tr if the pace holds. July gross

issuance was 44% above the four-year July average, and net

issuance was $52bn after $89bn of maturities and “net net”

was $10bn after $42bn of coupons.…