实时全球研报
Global Central Bank Watch
研报英文原文证据摘录
Alex Gallin (1-212) 270-5492
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-5735
Global Economic Research
JPMORGAN
07 August 2026
Global Central Bank Watch
Official
rate
Global
excluding US
Current
rate (%pa)
3.96
4-qrtr change (bp)
Last
Next
Last change
Forecast
next change
Next mtg
Forecast (%pa)
-42
-8
Sep 26
4.00
Dec 26
4.04
Mar 27
4.02
Jun 27
3.97
Sep 27
3.88
4.05
-25
-22
4.11
4.06
4.03
3.96
3.84
Developed
3.08
-34
17
3.16
3.32
3.34
3.32
3.26
Emerging
5.26
-56
-45
5.25
5.12
5.02
4.94
4.81
Latin America
9.91
-69
-47
9.81
9.82
9.85
9.67
9.44
EMEA EM
14.68
-292
-230
14.57
13.88
13.19
12.71
12.38
EM Asia
2.34
-2
-3
2.38
2.34
2.36
2.38
2.31
The Americas
4.51
-73
13
4.50
4.70
4.68
4.65
4.00
United States
Fed funds
3.75
-75
25
10 Dec 25 (-25bp)
16 Sep 26
Dec 26 (+25bp)
3.75
4.00
Canada
O/N rate
2.25
-50
0
29 Oct 25 (-25bp)
2 Sep 26
On hold
2.25
Brazil
SELIC O/N
14.00
-100
-125
5 Aug 26 (-25bp)
16 Sep 26
Sep 26 (-25bp)
13.75
13.25
12.75
Mexico
Repo rate
6.50
-126
0
7 May 26 (-25bp)
24 Sep 26
On hold
6.50
Chile
Disc rate
4.50
-25
75
16 Dec 25 (-25bp)
8 Sep 26
1Q27 (+25bp)
4.50
4.75
5.00
5.25
Colombia
Repo rate
12.00
275
-50
30 Jun 26 (+75bp)
30 Sep 26
Jun 27 (-25bp)
12.00
11.50
Peru
Reference
4.25
-25
100
11 Sep 25 (-25bp)
13 Aug 26
7 Oct 26 (+25bp)
4.25
4.50
4.75
5.00
5.25
5.33
-56
-52
5.46
5.34
5.18
5.03
4.81
Europe/Africa
Euro area
Depo rate
2.25
25
0
11 Jun 26 (+25bp)
10 Sep 26
Sep 26 (+25bp)
2.50
2.25
United Kingdom
Bank rate
3.75
-25
0
18 Dec 25 (-25bp)
17 Sep 26
Nov 26 (+25bp)
3.75
4.00
3.75
Norway
Dep rate
4.25
0
7 May 26 (+25bp)
13 Aug 26
Sep 26 (+25bp)
4.50
4.25
Sweden
Repo rate
1.75
-25
25
23 Sep 25 (-25bp)
20 Aug 26
Dec 26 (+25bp)
1.75
2.00
Czech Republic
2-wk repo
3.75
25
18 Jun 26 (+25bp)
17 Sep 26
Nov 26 (+25bp)
3.75
4.00
Hungary
Base rate
5.75
-75
-100
21 Jul 26 (-25bp)
25 Aug 26
Aug 26 (-25bp)
5.25
5.00
4.75
Israel
Base rate
3.50
-100
-50
6 Jul 26 (-25bp)
1 Sep 26
Sep 26 (-25bp)
3.25
3.00
Poland
7-day interv
3.75
-125
0
4 Mar 26 (-25bp)
2 Sep 26
On hold
3.75
Romania
Base rate
6.50
0
-50
7 Aug 24 (-25bp)
10 Aug 26
May 27 (-25bp)
6.50
6.25
6.00
Russia
Key pol rate
14.00
-400
-275
24 Jul 26 (-25bp)
11 Sep 26
Sep 26 (-25bp)
13.75
13.00
12.25
11.50
…
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