F12/26 2Q Results: Expectations for Management Change Could Provide Downside Support for Share Price

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M

Update

August 7, 2026 03:15 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Nippon Express Holdings (9147) | Japan

Takuya Osaka

Equity Analyst

F12/26 2Q Results: Expectations

for Management Change Could

Provide Downside Support for

Share Price

Shan Jiang

Research Associate

Nippon Express Holdings (9147.T, 9147 JT)

Logistics | Japan

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Strengthens our thesis

Meaningful upside

Meaningful revision higher

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 7, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)

Avg daily trading value (bn)

Equal-weight

In-Line

¥3,320

¥5,200

¥1,260.9

¥4.2

Key Takeaways

F12/26 2Q OP was ¥29.8bn, above our forecast of ¥24.0bn and above 2Q

guidance of ¥28.0bn; positive impression.

We believe the divergence from our forecast was mostly due to stronger-thanexpected trends in the air freight business (Japan and Asia).

The company lifted F12/26 OP guidance from ¥100bn to ¥120bn. We had

expected a guidance undershoot, so this also leaves us with a positive impression.

Guidance hike mostly due to additional gains from the sale of low-profitability

real estate assets, but we sense management's commitment to achieving its

profit targets.

Recommended action: Minor Positive: The 2Q earnings beat and upward revision

to full-year OP guidance exceeded market expectations and should be positive for

the shares in the near term. The earnings briefing also highlighted management's

heightened sense of urgency, with additional measures announced to improve

capital efficiency. While the stock appears to have priced in a substantial portion of

the positive news, expectations for management change should continue to provide

support for the share price.

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