Norway: Preview of next week’s meeting

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Europe Economic Research

07 August 2026

Norway: Preview of next week’s

meeting

Norges Bank to stay on hold next week, guiding towards a hike at one of

the subsequent meetings

Economic and Policy Research

The August meeting next week is live, but a hike would probably require

a significant rebound in July inflation (due Mon)

(44-20) 7134-8309

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

We stick with a September hike, but a lower than expected inflation profile

this year creates a little more uncertainty about that

We look for the Norges Bank to leave rates on hold at 4.25% at next week’s

meeting. In its prior June communications, the Bank signalled that it would likely

raise rates again this year. That had led to some expectation that it could hike as

soon as August. The Bank’s rate path implied a 40% probability of tightening by

then. And expectations had been further raised by the Bank’s decision to hike at the

May meeting earlier this year, which felt early relative to the guidance it had

provided and the data surprises in hand at the time.

While the August meeting next week is live, we think the odds are a fair bit lower

than suggested by the Norges Bank’s rate path. That reflects the unusual downside

surprise in the June CPI data. To put an August hike back on the table, therefore,

we think next week’s July CPI (due Monday) would need to rebound strongly such

that the Norges Bank’s June inflations look like they are tracking once again.

The June CPI report showed the headline inflation rate unexpectedly tumbling

from 3.1% to 2.7%oya (Norges Bank 3.2%). The full details were not available at

the time, due to data issues at the statistics agency. We estimated that a large part

of the decline had come from core inflation, with food and electricity prices

creating additional drags. But when the details were subsequently published, it

became clear that CPI-ATE core inflation had fallen even more sharply than

initially thought, from 3.4% to 2.7%oya (Norges Bank 3.3%). The details showed

that core was primarily pulled down by food prices, while communication and

recreational prices were also particularly weak.

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