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Employment review: Slowing labor demand, and an exaggerated fall in labor supply
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M
Update
August 7, 2026 02:07 PM GMT
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
U.S. Data Pulse | North America
Michael T Gapen
Chief US Economist
Employment review: Slowing
labor demand, and an
exaggerated fall in labor supply
Sam D Coffin
Economist
Diego Anzoategui
Economist
Arunima Sinha
Global Economist
Key Takeaways
Heather Berger
Economist
Payrolls fell 23k in July vs our +70k estimate and consensus +80k. The decline
was exaggerated by a summertime, 41k drop in gov't education.
Lingdi Xu
Economist
Private payrolls moderate after earlier surge. +30k in Jul vs +65k estimate. They
revised down broadly by 55k to average 45k in May-Jun.
Mixed signs on slack: AHE +0.1%m/m & -0.2pt to 3.2%y/y. But UE rate fell 0.1 to
4.1% with further decline in LFPR.
We are skeptical about the drop in supply: The drop in LFPR and UE rates are
probably exaggerated by youth LFPR, which tends to be noisy this time of year.
A mixed report, less demand and less supply. The Fed probably looks more at the
moderation in payrolls, and keeps their focus on inflation pressures.
Exhibit 1:
The employment report
2026
2025
monthly change, 000s, except
where noted
average
4Q avg
1Q avg
Payrolls, change, 000s
Private
Goods
Mining and logging
Construction
Manuf
Durables
MV
Nondurables
Services
Wholesale
Retail
Transport & warehousing
Utilities
Information
Financial
Professional & bus services
Temps
Private education
Health & social services
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Federal
State and local
Education
Average hourly earnings, m/m%ch
12-month % ch, eop
Production worker avg hrly earnings
12-month % ch, eop
Workweek
Production workers
Aggregate hours worked, % ch
Aggregate payroll incomes, % ch
10
25
-11
-2
0
-9
-7
-3
36
-4
-9
1
-4
1
-13
-8
0
57
8
4
-15
-24
9
1
0.31
3.7
0.31
3.8
34.2
33.7
-0.01
0.30
-39
26
-5
0
6
-11
-6
-3
-5
31
-3
-13
-21
1
-6
-1
4
-7
-4
50
18
6
-65
-64
-1
-7
0.29
3.7
0.28
3.8
34.2
33.7
0.03
0.31
73
78
19
0
13
6
9
3
-3
59
3
7
1
0
-16
-18
23
10
-1
56
6
-2
-5
-13
8
2
0.30
3.4
0.30
3.5
34.3
33.8
0.06
0.36
Labor force*, change, 000s
Employment*
Unemployment*
-14
-5
-9
78
112
-34
5
97
-92
Unemployment rate, %
4.3
4.5
…
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