Dauch Corp: Strong 2Q Beat and FY Guide Tightened to High-End on All Metrics; Expect Positive Reaction

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

07 August 2026

Dauch Corp

Neutral

Strong 2Q Beat and FY Guide Tightened to High-End

on All Metrics; Expect Positive Reaction

DCH, DCH US

Price (06 Aug 26):$5.67

Autos & Auto Parts

Quick take: A strong 2Q beat on all metrics (revenue +5% ahead, EBITDA +13%

ahead of JPMe) with above-sector average organic growth and EBITDA/FCF

guidance tightened towards the high-end; implied 2H outlook is modestly below

current JPMe/consensus, and gauging the degree of conservatism or any pull

forward into 2Q will be key. Expect a positive reaction today given the high torque

on potential revisions to equity value.

Rajat Gupta AC

See Table 1 and Table 2 for results vs. JPMe/consensus and implied 2H

guidance.

(1-212) 622-5472

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

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Other key takeaways: (1) China JV guide was taken up to ~$75 mn from ~$70 mn,

with 1H at ~$28 mn, implying a second half step-up. (2) Synergy capture is tracking

a little better, with an in-year benefit now ~$68 mn against ~$63 mn previously and

a run rate of greater than $100 mn still targeted by the end of year one.

Key questions for the call: (1) Puts and takes on the top-line guidance raise; (2)

Reason for EBITDA stepping down in the 2H sequentially despite improved

production backdrop in North America, (3) Drivers of the 2H step-up in China JV

equity income, how much of it converts to cash through dividends, and how

durable it is given the shift in the China customer mix and production headwinds

in that region, (4) How much of the $60-75 mn of in-year synergy is actioned and

in run rate today, (5) Target leverage and updated timeframe on debt repayment,

and at what point capital return re-enters the conversation.

Table 1: DCH 2Q26 Actuals vs. comparable JPMe/Consensus

$ mn except per share

Actual 2Q26

JPMe 2Q26

(%) Diff vs. JPMe

Consensus 2Q26

(%) Diff vs. Consensus

Net Sales

2,956

2,824

5%

2,814

5%

92%

Net Income

Diluted EPS

79

$0.32

29

$0.15

178%

118%

25

$0.17

213%

88%

202%

53%

Adjusted EBITDA

EBITDA Margin (%)

390

13.2%

345

12.2%

13%

96 bps

349

12.4%

12%

78 bps

93%

1 bps

D&A

215

230

-6%

212

1%

90%

…