Nutrien and Mosaic: In the Maize

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

07 August 2026

Nutrien and Mosaic

In the Maize

We lowered our 2026 EBITDA forecast for Mosaic from $1.79b to $1.63b, versus

$2.4b in 2025. Mosaic’s phosphate production and sales are decreasing because

farmers are less willing to pay sharply elevated prices for phosphate fertilizers. In

addition, the prices of phosphate raw materials, ammonia and sulfur, continue to

rise into 2H:26. Mosaic’s Brazilian operation is being weighed down as well by

difficult credit conditions leading to delayed or lower purchases. Potash operations

remain a relative island of fertilizer demand strength and profitability. The

decrease in EBITDA is causing a cash crunch at Mosaic. Mosaic spends almost

$1.5b annually on capital expenditures and dividends. We estimate its cash flow

from operations near $1b for 2026. Mosaic is not home free, its cash flow from

operations has been about $270m through 1H:26. We estimate its net debt to

EBITDA at 3.4x by year-end. We rate Mosaic Underweight for year-ahead

performance. We establish a $19 price target for 2027 that reflects a 6x multiple

of 2027 EBITDA, unchanged from our 2026 price target .

We reduced our 2026 EBITDA estimate for Nutrien from $6.6b to $6.0b

versus $6.0b in 2025 due to price pressure in nitrogen. Nutrien’s Potash

segment continues to be a solid source of growth with volumes and prices

moving higher, leading to 10% EBITDA growth for Nutrien’s largest segment.

Farmers view potash prices, which are close to their 10-year average, as a value

in a world of high priced nutrients. The Retail segment continue to be solid

source of growth with margins supported by good weather, branded products,

and higher fertilizer prices. The operation is experiencing about 5% EBITDA

growth. Recent downward movements in nitrogen prices led us to reduce our

Nitrogen segment EBITDA forecast by ($620m). We view nitrogen prices as

lower by about $56/t on a 9.3m ton base from our previous forecast. We

continue to expect a tough year for the phosphate operation. We establish a

2027 price target of $75 for Nutrien, down from our $80 2026 price target. The

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