J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning Intelligence

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Global Markets Strategy

07 August 2026

J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning

Intelligence

Rate rally supports next week’s long/healthcare

skewed, but otherwise manageable, calendar. Inflation

data looms, as do expected weaker fall muni technicals.

– This week’s considerable ~$17.5bn tax-exempt calendar (highest of year/ 5th

highest on record), was well digested with the help of strong reinvestment capital

($32bn projected for 1H August represents the 2nd highest two-week stretch of the

year), strong LSEG-reported inflows ($1.3bn), and observed inflows every day

of the week (we estimate $3bn, including reinvestment).

Securitized Products & Public

Finance Municipals Strategy

– Next week’s ~$11bn in tax-exempt volume is expected to see a solid reception,

assuming range-bound to lower rates and stable fund flows. Friday’s payrolldriven rate rally should help distribution of risky assets despite both long-end

and health-care being more heavily offered this week, in an otherwise light week

for secondary offerings. The weaker payroll data appears timely given a calendar

that is skewed towards the richer longer portion of the curve and the fully-valued

healthcare sector over the week. We would not be inclined to chase spreads

tighter on one payroll print in a supportive technical environment, particularly

given critical inflation data on tap next week.

(1-212) 834-3051

Tax-Exempt Market Wrap

– The HG muni scale was bumped 1bp through the 8-year spot and left unchanged

thereafter on Thursday, outperforming the 4-6bp rise in UST rates. For the week, HG

munis are lower by 7-11-8-3bp in 2-5-10-30yrs, outperforming UST by 2-4bp in

2-5yrs, matching in the 10-year spot, and underperforming by 3bp in the 30-year

spot. Munis performed well despite the heaviest tax-exempt supply week of the

year, given strong 1H reinvestment capital and above-trend inflows (LSEG’s $1.3bn

print was 1.3x the 25-week average).

Figure 1: For the week, HG munis are lower by 7-11-8-3bp in 2-5-10-30yrs, outperforming UST

by 2-4bp in 2-5yrs, matching in 10yrs, and underperforming by 3bp in the 30yr spot

WTD yield change, bp

HG Muni

AA Tax Muni

AA Corp

UST

0

-2

-3

-4

-3

-8

-3

-5

-6

-5

-6

-7

-10

…