US banner deep dive: Customer overlap with WMT/AMZN is bigger than you think

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M

Idea

August 5, 2026 04:22 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Ahold Delhaize NV | Europe

Izabel Dobreva

Equity Analyst

US banner deep dive: Customer

overlap with WMT/AMZN is

bigger than you think

What’s Changed

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD.AS)

From

To

Price Target

€32.50

€31.50

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD.AS, AD NA)

Retailing - Food | Netherlands

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)*

EV, curr (mn)*

Underweight

In-Line

€31.50

€34.39

€42.54-32.13

€30,320

€14,886

€45,192

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

We see risk to US earnings from a step up in industry

competition - we do not think the $1bn pricing programme gives

sufficient flexibility for the 2026-28 cycle. Our new AlphaWise

survey shows 60% of ADUSA shoppers overlap with Walmart

and 50% with Amazon. The competitive bar is rising.

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What's new? In our recent downgrade to Underweight, we argued that Ahold

Delhaize's planned US price investments will likely need to be upsized, as

competitive intensity accelerates across the industry. Since then, our discussions

with investors suggest many continue to view ADUSA's banners as relatively

insulated because of their local market positions and perceived limited direct store

overlap with Walmart.

Our latest 2026 AlphaWise survey challenges that perception. We present the

Fiscal Year Ending

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

Sales / Revenue

(€mn)**

EBITDA (€mn)**

EBIT (€mn)**

EPS (€)**

Prior EPS (€)**

EPS (€)§

ModelWare EPS (€)

P/E**

EV/revenue*

EV/EBITDA**

EV/EBIT**

DPS (€)

Div yld (%)

FCF yld ratio (%)**

Net debt (€mn)*

Net debt/EBITDA**

92,352 94,315 93,986 97,249

7,319

7,364

7,277

7,399

3,734

3,819

3,796

3,933

2.67

2.76

2.82

3.04

2.80

2.90

3.10

2.77

2.97

3.20

2.67

2.76

2.82

3.04

13.1

12.4

12.2

11.3

0.5

6.3

6.5

6.6

6.5

12.3

12.5

12.6

12.2

1.24

1.26

1.29

1.40

3.6

3.7

3.8

4.1

8.2

7.9

7.4

7.2

14,872 14,886 14,811 14,839

2.0

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

** = Based on consensus methodology

…